Monday, September 30, 2013

Coming Down to the Wire

In just over 8 hours, 1/3rd or 800,000 Federal Employees will be shut down and out of a paycheck and it doesn't seem like much is getting done to change that eventuality.

Still we have HYG positive on some impressive timeframes, although it has taken on some water in the 5 min range.

There's a VERY slight positive tone or less negative among many of the averages.

In addition TICK data is leaning more positive.

What I found interesting is that the reach for protection via VXX and VIX Futures is not supported as well as you might think, the earlier half of the day had better 3C support and the afternoon has a negative divergence.

Unless something changes enough to really inspire me, I feel like we have a nice set up for long entries, that would be the short term strategic view, however the short term tactical view (the timing of entering those positions) is still off.

AFTER CONSIDERING THIS I'VE COME TO THE UNDERSTANDING THAT DESPITE THE HYG POSITIVE DIVEGRENCE AND OTHERS, AT THIS POINT, WITHOUT THE SHORT TERM CHARTS GIVING A CLEAR TACTICAL ENTRY, I BELIEVE TAKING A POSITION WITHOUT THE INTRADAY CHARTS IS AKIN TO GAMBLING ON THE OUTCOME.

WE ARE NOT GAMBLERS, I DON'T THINK I'LL ENTERTAIN ANY MORE ENTRIES UNLESS THRE IS A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT AND THAT LOOKS VERY UNLIKELY, BUT WHO KNOWS WHAT TOMORROW BRINGS.

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