Market Update

This is a tough one for timing, I think if I were in a position in which I didn't have any long exposure for a short term move, I'd probably phase in to a trade or two, maybe half positions until or unless a more solid looking entry comes around, but I already have pretty significant exposure.

The SPY Arbitrage model is positive by $.60, suggesting the SPY is undervalued. The ES CONTEXT model has been above and below fair value all day but by only a few points and is currently above and suggesting ES is underpriced by a small amount as well, which is a big change from last week when it was clearly in the negative by 30-40 points.

The TICK Index is useful for these situations as well.

 The 1 min TICK on my custom TICK indicator doesn't show much, but at 5 mins a positive trend emerges.

As for SPY intraday charts, the 1-3 min look mushy compared to the 5-15 and even 30 min.

SPY 5 min looks like it has no doubt.

To transfer this quickly to a 15 min and even on a 30 min, really looks like there's little doubt.

It's still the QQQ that is the laggard, almost as if it has nothing to do with the rest of the market today.

 The earlier negative intraday divergences are clear on the 2 min QQQ, but I have to wonder as all new divergences start on the earliest timeframes, whether the 1 min chart below is telling us something.

A slightly positive tone developing.

The IWM is probably closest to in line of all the averages, it is not perfectly in all timeframes or intraday, but close.

The DIA is mixed and of little help.

So that leaves HYG.

 HYG 5 min with accumulation picking up late Friday, then adding this today.

The 15 min chart which didn't see any migration Friday, added this entire leading positive today and that's impressive for a 15 min chart.

 However the 1 min intraday suggests a pullback and that is what we've started.

The pullback signal stretches to the 3 min chart for now so it seems likely it pulls back.

The question remains whether these longs are only effective before the close as whatever happens would be more likely to happen before midnight or if it is worth waiting on the proper intraday signals as usual.

I'll probably be looking at each asset and judging on a case by case basis keeping the overall market in mind.

Once again, the choice between probabilities and high probability, low risk and excellent entries.

Of course I'll let you know if I enter anything before I do. The thing I can't really get past is HYG is a smart money asset that has done a lot of positive work today, unless those divergences fall apart a bit before the close, it almost seems inevitable that the market will move higher.