TRADE IDEAS & MARKET UPDATE

As I showed in the last post, there are some underlying currents that started to really take off from last week's mediocre positive divergences as of Friday. In fact I have a video I made Saturday afternoon addressing the underlying trade Friday and the changes there which I though were strange going in to what was almost certainly going to be a weekend with no good news, but you never know what smart money knows and that's why we try to follow what they are doing; I may put that video out later.

I'm not sure that we'll get a very deep pullback today before any potential upside, the government is suppose to shut down (or about 1/3rd of it) at midnight tonight, so if there's going to be a deal struck, I'd imagine it would be before then and the market response would come in the overnight session.

Still I want to be careful as to how much risk to take on and where as this could all still go south.

I'm going to look quickly at Leading Indicators and mainly follow HYG as it seems to be where smart money is expressing their opinion the most.

The assets I've identified (interestingly it's not bullish across the board, the same as last week, for instance, although PCLN would likely draft the market higher, the 3C signals are leaning much closer to a short and therefore PCLN would not be a candidate for a long position).

The assets I have found and like include:

TECL 3x long Tech (long)
FAS long or XLF calls
XOM Nov. $85 Calls or XOM long. Alternatively, ERX long, although I don't like it as much.
UNG is very close to a long, but I think I'd wait there.
SPY looks good, I'm looking at Nov. $167 calls, otherwise the ETF would be UPRO 3x long SPX , there's a 2x long as well.

I'll get back with you in a few minutes after double checking everything, remember there's still a lot of fundamental (unpredictable) risk in this, but if HYG continues to develop, it would seem smart money knows something.