TLT (20+ Year Treasuries)

Treasuries gapped up last night on the open of futures trade for the new week, however I wrote about this last night and showed not only negative divergences in Treasury futures, but the fact that the market was far from being open meant what we were seeing was low volume correlation/guess work. Now those markets are open, things look different. The 10 and 30 year futures have both given up all of the gap up gains from last night and are trading below Friday's close.

The November TLT Put, amazingly is still at a double digit gain as we got in that position right at the top while upside momentum was still strong so an excellent entry has kept that position at a double digit gain.

Here's a look at the longer end, this is where my interest is both on a short term market manipulation basis as well as the put trade and on a longer basis as a possible long play (TLT) on a decent pullback, hopefully to the $100-$102 range or below, although that feels like a lot to ask for right now. The one lesson I learn and re-learn over and over again is not to underestimate the market's penchant for moving to extremes that are typically 2-3x more than what may seem reasonable and often either 2-3x faster or longer than what seems reasonable. This is only natural being the market is a mass of millions of different emotions, even the computers were programmed by humans. The point being, TLT @ $99.50 is not at all unlikely, it's quite possible.

10-year Treasury Futures (15m.)  now trading below Friday's close as Futures opened at a leading negative divergence here last night.

 30 year 5 min also with a leading negative on the open of trade for the new week last night.

30 year 15 min leading negative as well.

TLT 20+ year Treasury

 TLT intraday negative on the open sends it below Friday's close.

The longer term 2 min chart, still in good shape for the put trade, remember I never expected or wanted to see heavy distribution here, I'm more interested in a TLT long position than a short, but at a discount on a pullback so I don't want to see any core strength ruined.

TLT's 5 min negative right at the highs, which was an easy entry as we got in to puts at a deep discount as price looked very bullish, the next day TLT puts were at a double digit gain and have been ever since.

I'll continue to hold the put, but on the first decent momentum move to the downside I'll be looking to close it and on a move under $102, I'll be looking for signs of accumulation to enter TLT long as a core position, if anyone has any great ideas of how to leverage this up, but still maintain liquidity, I'm all ears, the leveraged ETFS are very illiquid as are most longer options.