Thursday, September 5, 2013

FSLR Charts

These are the charts I promised earlier when I posted this FSLR update without any.

Hopefully you'll see why I'm taking the longer view with FSLR, it is one of the few stocks that I have liked and more specifically, thought it could stand on its own feet without the need to draft the market.

 This is the 1 min intraday, because we want to take profits in call positions in to upside momentum as we start to lose profits when volatility & momentum fall and time decay takes over. Because the main FSLR position (call) is out to October, it's less of a worry than a shorter expiration, this is why I wanted to warn members who might have shorter expirations that FSLR's upside move was going to lose momentum.

 3 min chart shows the stop run/head fake yesterday accumulated and further accumulation in to a flat price range as is often the case, this chart remains in line so there hasn't been any serious damage to FSLR, likely just some profit taking.

 The 10 min chart shows distribution at a head fake new local high and then a large accumulation phase, the upside move is preceded by a head fake move as we see to some degree or another about 80% of the time just like the head fake to the left before a downside reversal.

Ultimately the 30 min chart (and some longer ones) is in a large leading positive divergence, the head fake was the stop run yesterday, I wrote about it as being a head fake last night and we are seeing the start of the move. With October calls I can withstand some time decay, pullback or consolidation, I'm looking at the larger potential of the position and thus I chose to just leave this one open.

For new positions I would not chase here, I'd look for a pullback, if the market can help, you'll likely get a great set up.

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