***Market Update : HEAD FAKE?

Honestly, I have my own emotions that I have to battle just like anyone, I find the best way for me to do that is to take myself out of the process and stick with the charts.

Here's what I see and if I'm right, if the analysis of the last few days for a pullback is right and if the analysis for a strong upside move is right, we may be at a very important inflection point right now.

I'll use the SPY as an example, but EVERY major average has one of these right now.

The thing about head fake moves, especially when they are used in the context of a strong, recognizable technical price pattern is, they can move VERY fast,...

"FROM FAILED MOVES COME FAST MOVES" and a head fake is a type of failed move.

 Just so you know what I mean when I say, "Pullback to the bottom of the choppy range", this is the range, note stronger volume at the bottom/support where we have seen accumulation.

This is the current pattern in ALL of the major averages,

Technical traders take this to be a  consolidation/continuation triangle, in this case they expect it to break out to the upside, I don't know how they'd treat it given their bearish sentiment, but a breakout as we see starting here and then a failure is a "Crazy Ivan" shakeout and can lead to a fast move to the lower end of the range above.

ALL OF THE AVERAGES HAVE THIS TRIANGLE RIGHT NOW

 The SPY 1 min negative with a slight positive move, but not a positive divergence at the initial breakout above the triangle. A larger breakout would be easier to see whether there's stronger distribution meaning we go down or if price and 3C move in line meaning the bounce to the upside (the large one) starts now.

 SPY 3 min positive at the lower end of the range, the triangle and consolidation from yesterday/today at the green arrow and a 3 min leading negative divegrence.

It is possible the 3 min divergence is there only to keep the market from rising and forming a consolidation until they are ready to let it rise, it's possible, it's not probable.

 When we get a 10-min leading negative in a range, I fully expect price to pullback.

This is a 2 hour, long term chart, the scale at the bottom is in days so you can see that the overall primary 3C trend is bearish, but within that we have a slight positive, it is only slight because this is such a long chart (2 hours), but if we zoom in on that divergence...

This is what we get, a negative sending price lower, 3C in line with he price trend and a positive now.

This positive should lead to the "strong" upside move I've been talking about, however the chart above this keeps it in perspective, that price strength should be used in my view to sell short in to as the larger perspective shows we are clearly in a primary bearish/large negative divergence.

So that's multiple timeframes and expectations, but we have to start with the move around the triangle right now.

Since a move to the lower end of the range is not a large trade (day/days) it's not as important as a long position at the lower end of the range would be, but still the most important trade is selling short in to a strong move above the range so keep this in mind when deciding what risk you want to take and how to allocate dry powder.