Trade: VXX / UVXY

If I'm looking at VXX / UVXY long, then I'm obviously expecting the market to do what I've expected and that is to come down, tomorrow is a big day, Non-Farm Payrolls and although Initial Claims suggest NFP will come in with a decent print (which is bad news for the market), you just really never know especially with the amount of manipulation applied to the print with seasonal adjustments, arbitrary adjustments, and anything else they need to justify the tapering of QE.

In other words, it's hard to say what they'll do with the NFP, but I'm guessing it will be market negative, meaning probably a good report.

For now I'm going to enter a partial VXX call position, if it improves some more, maybe head fakes below an intraday range that is starting to look like a tempting stop/limit run area with even stronger 3C charts, that's when I'd add. This is going to be dealt with as a hit and run type position, in and out.

I think you could make some $ with UVXY (the 2x leveraged long version of VXX), although for such a short (anticipated) move, I'd prefer more leverage to make the profit potential worthwhile.

Some charts, remember earlier it was the actual VIX futures that first were positive while VXX and UVXY were in line so this is a pretty early entry in to a position, but I believe it's a strong probability, even if not the strongest (duration) position.

I decided to go with VXX Sept. $16 Calls

 intraday VIX futures 1 min are leading positive and looking better, the 5 min chart is already positive.

VXX is seeing a strong 1 min leading positive in a hurry, there's also an unfulfilled positive from yesterday.

We have migration to the next timeframe so the earliest signs are that the divergence is real and healthy (considering the scale).

The longer term 10 min chart is clearly negative, this would be in line with a market bounce, I know these multiple timeframes are getting confusing, but this chart supports my view (along with the ones above) that we'll see a short term pullback toward the bottom of the market's range in the recent last several days of chop, from there we should see accumulation of lower prices and finally a strong move to the upside breaking out of the range and being strong enough to turn the bearish retail crowd bullish, this chart would coincide with that move.

At 15 min VXX is positive again, this is a longer term trend which is the primary downtrend I'm expecting after a strong bounce, in fact the bounce is most useful to sell short in to, even though I have positions set up to take advantage of the upside.