Opening Indications...

You know what I'm expecting and in fact hoping for as it would give us a high probability on some additional short term trade openings. In fact, if things keep moving the way they are, I may make some decisions about some very short term downside plays.

We don't have an intraday smoking gun yet, but we have pretty good objective information suggesting our expectations are correct, although I'll say this market is playing out about as slowly as I can imagine, even considering the reversal process at each leg of rather tightly woven chop.

Thus far the market averages, first the higher probability, slightly longer intraday charts and the indications they were giving yesterday for a move to the downside (lower end of the choppy range), then today;s intraday charts which are fairly in line. There are a few interesting Index Futures and perhaps Treasury as well as VIX futures, not quite in VXX or UVXY, but actual (real) VIX futures.

 First the higher probability, short term move (as in down toward the lower end of the market's recent choppy range where accumulation has been occurring).

IWM 3 min leading negative, if there needed to be a head fake move, which I don't think, it's right in the area.

 IWM 1 min intraday, like I said, no intraday smoking gun yet as the 1 min chart is nearly perfectly in line with price

QQQ 2 min leading negative suggesting a move to the downside short term

QQQ 1 min intraday is perfectly in line with price, thus there's no intraday divergence for today thus far.

SPY 5 min suggesting a downside move

This is the only one in which today's intraday 1 min chart is negative, so I'm looking for the other averages to join.

Momentum indicators are slightly negative, really though there's not a smoking gun here either.

The NYSE TICK's trend thus far this morning, pretty mellow except note the move below -100 to nearly -1250, that's extreme and a lot more stocks ticking down so the internals intraday may be coming lose to create some downward movement.

My Custom TICK Trend Indicator vs the SPY, here we do see a trend in the NYSE TICK, it rose with price, now it's falling off, this is a unique way to look at TICK data, no one else is using this as its my own indicator, but it gives the data a new meaning as there was little we could glean from TICK data above, but here (without manipulating the data, just looking at it differently), we can see a clear trend developing on this 1 min chart.

Index Futures

 ES (SPX Futures) 1 min is looking a bit negative, I wouldn't enter positions based on this, it's the 5 min just like the averages above (the slightly longer, more important charts) that are showing the probabilities of that downside move to the bottom of the range, don't forget, "if" we get there with accumulation - a constructive pullback- then I fully expect to see a head fake break below the range BEFORE we see a move to the upside and I mean the STRONG upside move coming out of the range.

ES 5 min as mentioned, the 5 min charts show clear leading negative divergences.

NQ (NASDAQ Futures) 5 min the same thing

TF (Russell 2000 Futures) 5 min the same thing, that's good confirmation especially taken with the market averages.

 VIX Futures 1 min This intraday VIX futures chart is getting interesting with accumulation, that would suggest a move higher in VIX futures and that means a move lower in the market as protection is bid.

10 year 1 min and as shown this a.m., the 10 year treasury seeing a move to the upside would indicate funds would likely floe from the market to treasuries which would help a pullback.

That's what we have to work with thus far.