The larger post of what happened on Friday and why that was exactly what we suspected, the market with advance knowledge of something that was not out in the news until overnight and something the market feared may have to either come in pieces or wait for the daily wrap as there's just so much to it.
However the main point being Friday our heads up may have been the only one in retail land, write me if someone else knew or saw what we saw Friday as it caused the market to top, to put in a head fake move yesterday as we expected as we see them in 80% of all reversals and of course we are lower today with numerous other oddities coming this week like Icahn's sale (I think there's a reason he had to start now), Loeb's "concern for the global economy " so much so that he'll lose billions in income to return money to clients as he doesn't think there are investments out there that are worth taking so that he may keep his fund's performance up.
Last night The Shanghai Composite was down -1.25% and the Nikkei was down 2% as I suspected because of the Yen...
This if Russell 2000 futures overnight sliding which wasn't a surprise after yesterday's chimney on the igloo.
From last night's Daily warp...
"I'll say that between the internals, the dominant Price/Volume relationships, and most of all the candles on volume, I think we're likely headed for a lower close tomorrow. That's not what's really importnat, however it could be the start of something really important because as I was looking for last night and yesterday in Financials and the market in general was a head fake move, that Igloo with a chimney" and we saw a lot of those today."
This is the 15 min negative divegrence in the Nikkei, I can find the article this week in which I thought the Nikkei falls on dollar strength, but you can find it as easy, it's not that important. This is the distribution in the Nikkei and the overnight loss of 2%.
The reason I thought the Nikkei falls and this same reason negatively impacts our markets, the Yen which has been beaten down to support the 3 major carry trades that support the market, it was just Monday I said I thought the yellow arrow was a bull flag and the Yen would be up soon and the Nikkei down as well as the carry trades that support US markets in this post.
Other interesting posts:
"Among All the Other Oddities Today", from Friday October 18th...
"And I truly mean odd, actually not in the sense of scratching one's head and saying, "That's odd", but in the sense that one thing after another all day, all connected, all moving toward the same direction of overwhelming fear and VERY sudden at that. I detailed the events in the last post, but through most of the day there were beginnings of this behavior and then extremes. Whatever it was, I'm guessing it started pre-market and it seems as the Wall SAtreet Whisper made its rounds, first institutional assets saw these strange, rapid fear-based events and finally the dumb money which is generally considered to be stocks (Credit and Bond traders being some of the best informed, currency and futures traders and then stocks)."
Also from Friday Oct. 18th,
"The Impression I get is that something is being discounted rapidly, something the market is not going to like. Protection is being sough, risk is being sold.
The other interesting thing (which I'll demonstrate later) is that distribution is already in effect in most assets, it's the short term charts, the ones that move the market near term on the upside move we had expected as the GOOG video makes clear 3 days before we got the start of it, that were positive. It's these same charts that are going negative so quickly, the implication being, they just found out something as well and are reacting violently and quickly."
And Sunday's post puts it all together, "The Interesting Stuff"
If you are not familiar with what happened Friday, these posts will get you up to speed, you'll need to understand them and understand what we saw that the entire retail market missed to understand the importance of what is going on right now, book mark this for later if you don't have the time right now.
Market Update for this a.m. coming next...
Is interest rates about to start going up?
-
Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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