Market Analysis Part 1

Earlier today I was trying to get a post together with some very interesting information that reaches back to the very sudden, strong and very odd behavior of Friday Oct. 18th which was another typical Op-Ex Friday (as all are now with weeklies) and we expected the typical Friday Op-Ex behavior which is to say that typically the market opens on Friday and hangs somewhere around Thursday's close until approximately 2-3 p.m. as most of the contracts are wrapped up by that time. Then the market starts coming unhinged from the typical op-ex pin or "Max Pain" in which the most number (or dollar amount) of open interest is pinned to expire worthless.

However earlier in the day there were some interesting hints, not anything big enough for a post, but shortly after things started moving very quickly.

I think it's best to go back and remember the feel of that Friday and I've selected a few posts from Friday the 18th so you can see the mindset, the adrenaline in having seemingly found something that the rest of the market had not seen.

While I finish putting together what I know so far, I'm putting up these few posts from Friday as a sample of what conditions were like , I think the emotional component of what was going on is important and it's very easy to forget, so if you have time, just check out these few short posts to get the feel of later Friday.

First I had put up the GOOG Video from Sunday October 6th, this showed the upside move we were expecting and why, GOOG was used as a proxy for the market, but also the analysis for GOOG stood on its own.

GOOG / Market Video From Sunday October 6th 10:56 a.m.

HYG Update 12:30 p.m.

Quick Look at Leading Indicators 1:30 p.m.

Fear is Rising, I Doubt it's Retail 1:55 p.m.

Something is Definitely Up 2:17 p.m.

***Important Market Update 3:32 p.m.

Among All the Other Oddities Today... 7:14 p.m.