Wednesday, October 23, 2013

URRE Position Update

The last URRE trade we had was on October 8th and by 10:30 a.m. October 9th we had a +20% gain, some members took profits and some held URRE, I decided to hold URRE as a longer term position.

From what I see right now, I still like URRE for my purposes of a longer trend trade, but if I were to look for a tactical, very specific entry, I don't think UI'd be calling it out at this moment.

Here are the charts with some suggested stops using the Trend Channel.

 The white arrow is where we bought URRE the last time, right at the very low of the downtrend/reversal, the next day, in a trade only a few hours old we had a +20% gain with no leverage at all.

From the looks of things, this tight range is where we typically see accumulation, but it is also so tight and defined that it's just begging for a head fake / stop run (yellow arrow). Personally I'll set some alerts for a move under support at $2.52 with $2.50 being a very obvious level for stops and there's a good chance a head fake move would not only provide accumulation of the stopped out shares, but also an excellent timing marker for an upside reversal.

 The charts that originally interested me in the trade did not include short term charts going positive, it was really strong longer term positive such as the 30 min above which was leading to the upside very impressively and is still in a large leading positive divdivergencegernece. 

The reason I would not enter a new position today is because of 1) the range being so obvious and 2) not having a signal that stands out like it did Oct. 8th, but we still have a very strong signal and I see no reason to let go of URRE.

 There was then and still is now the possibility of a much larger double bottom type of base based on this 60 min chart, if this were the case a pullback might be deeper, but the resulting uptrend (stage 2) would be twice as powerful.

Right now the daily Trend Channel's stop is $2.47, for a position that hasn't made it to stage 2 yet, this seems a bit too tight (these stops are based on a CLOSE below the level. Furthermore if there's a head fake hitting $2.50 stops, it's a little too close for comfort, but this all depends on how you set up your risk management, I always leave it wide for bottoming or topping positions as that's where the volatility is at its highest.

The 2-day TC seems more appropriate to me with a close below $2.38 acting as a stop, if you already have a position and want to use this wider stop, you can always consider lowering your position size to widen your stop.

No comments: