Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Core Positions

There are a number of Core /Trend Short positions that are seeing rapid deterioration, one of main problems with entering now is the NFLX scenario. NFLX is one of the core short candidates along with JPM, PCLN, AA, GS, XOM, etc.

NFLX shows one of the problems I have, lets call it resistance at $334.50 or so, a move above that level makes it such any easy short and it sets up the snow ball effect, in fact there are a lot of reasons which you can find on the member's site near the top right, "Understanding the Head Fake Move" part 1 and 2, this shows you why a bull trap just a bit above current prices is so effective considering the small distance it needs to go.

There are some other issues like some divergences that are not all the way there yet, some credit markets like HYG that haven't failed because I suspect they are likely trying to hold the market up to get to areas like >$334.50 in PCLN.

I may start adding some core positions, either phased in, add-to or in total. I think focussing too much on the very near term action makes sense from a tactical point of view because of the volatility, but it's easy to forget to step back and looking at the big picture.

I'll be updating a lot of these and the areas I'd like to see them.


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