Short Term Manipulation- Arbitrage for Algos

I'm trying to be cautious and patient today, in the last post I mentioned two very different outlooks. One of the important parts of the post was this and I wanted to elaborate on it in a separate post...

"There are some other issues like some divergences that are not all the way there yet, some credit markets like HYG that haven't failed because I suspect they are likely trying to hold the market up to get to areas like >$334.50 in PCLN."

I mentioned this in an earlier post today With an Apparent Deal In Place and Cruz Not Blocking

This was at 12:39 today from the linked post above...

"I'm checking in to what looks like an effort to kick in the SPY Arbitrage with HYG/VXX and they could do it without TLT, it looked like it might stick, but HYG is now on the fence, if TLT is not involved (and it's not), HYG has to lead for it to work, otherwise, we fall."

I was suspicious of this earlier so I took a snap of the SPY Arbitrage model while it was negative.

Right around 12 p.m. (this is delayed) the SPY Arbitrage was negative, but there wasn't as much pressure on the market as there was just a little later, take Yields for example..

Yields are red, the SPX is green, mYields act like a magnet and pull the market toward them. Today on the seeming resolution in D.C., Yields spiked lower, putting more downward pressure on the market, but as I mentioned in the NFLX example, "We aren't that far from the most ideal area".

ES and other averages were feeling the pressure as well...

ES intraday

This however is why I was suspicious earlier, TLT was moving up, for the SPY Arbitrage to work and support the market HYG needs to move up, VXX and TLT down or at least have worse relative performance.

HY credit that is NOT attached to the Arb. scheme looks like this...

Much like intraday sentiment, HY credit is not buying the market rally, in fact Credit has a very different view, but why would HYG look like this?

 Intraday HYG is OUTPERFORMING the SPX

 I inverted the SPX so you can see VXX, even being down, is still underperforming the correlation.

 It doesn't matter what 3C is doing to the algos they read price only, VXX is where it needs to be which isn't surprising given its correlation, but the extra push beyond the correlation is what I suspected when I saw HYG outperforming the SPX.

So far both of these add up to, They are trying to support the market with the SPY arbitrage scheme" TLT is the only one left... (the 3rd of the 3 issues that create the arb.)

 And it looks like they're trying to slow or knock TLT down, the net effect...

This is the current capture of the SPY Arb. model

This is what I suspected and the reason I captured the SPY Arb at the top of this post earlier.

I'm not sure if the game is intraday , until they can try to activate a Carry trade, maybe longer sited as in to the effect I suggested...

It's just common sense a bull trap above resistance makes this a more powerful short.

I'll keep watching, but it seems they are up to something and they are feeling downside pull, the Arbitrage wouldn't have been activated if they weren't just as they didn't need it this morning.

In any case, I still wouldn't make any large commitments unless you have good reason and have your risk management set up. Sometimes patience is the best policy.