Glad I'm not crazy, as I was putting up the last post, I received this email from a respected trader, that I only saw AFTER the last post...
"Well, for sure one of the worst SPY arb. abuse day I've seen in quite a while. SPY making lower highs since 11h, yet VXX still making regular lower lows. Perhaps it also has to do with the October futures opex, but...."
The point for right now is there's bearish intraday market pressure, the SPY Arbitrage was activated to keep the SPY from falling at the very minimum, maybe to try to lift it. As far as reasons beyond that, whether it's for an EOD bake sale, I don't know, but the SPY looks like this...
SPY 1 min leading negative
There's been migration (stronger divegrence) to longer charts as in the 2 min leading negative above and...
The 3 min is nearly vertical.
I don't have much problem holding the SPXU long, I'm a little hesitant to add VXX at this point, not because of signals, but because I think (at this point) VXX upside would be correlation based, not fear based as they seem to have removed the fear from the market with the D.C. solution.
We'll see, I'm keeping short term positions on the speculative side until there's indisputable reason not to.
One of the things I like about SPXU is that it is leading positive in short, intermediate and long term timeframes, not every one, but it has representation in each.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
-
Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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