Wednesday, October 30, 2013

FB as a Barometer

Well I knew there was unusual accumulation in FB very short term and heavy distribution very long term, but I didn't think my comment from earlier...

"At first FB had some pretty nice intraday charts, they look better than the overall market, however as I got to longer charts, the damage there was obvious. FB may be good for a rip and dip, but it's just not strong enough for me to take on as an earnings play."

Would play out so fast...
FB ripping and dipping in AH alone.

The market is much weaker than I've ever seen it. I think we are at a pivot that is not only important to the 10/9 cycle, but the entire of 2013 and even bigger, likely the entire 2009 through present.

I'll get in to more detail when I don't have to rush through it, but the essential plan remains the same, there was some short term divergences toward the EOD, I think we are best off using these to short in to whatever strength is left as retail seems to be firmly holding the bag based on the market's actions today, only later did it seem smart money stepped in to set up what looks to be a very small cycle, thus me closing the AAPL Put again, I'll give you the P/L on that position tomorrow, but it was another small gain, but the gain wasn't the point.

Hopefully we'll get a shot in stocks like FB, but what I saw after hours tells me a lot of things we have been seeing are firmly in place and it's not going to be good for the market. 

The days of buy the dip and "Aren't we smart" are fading fast, you'll need an edge and be able to track like a hunter, like a wolf, I think not only do we have that, but the reduced liquidity environment will actually make it easier for us.

I have a lot of other thoughts I'll share with you, but mainly I'm saying I think the pivot we are at is more than just a reversal from the 10/9 bounce, a lot bigger.

I'll see you in a few hours, THE PLANS FOR NOW STAY THE SAME...

Stay patient and let the trades come to you, there are plenty and you have time.

No comments: