I'm looking around closely today at intraday action to see if there's anything very odd sticking out, but in reality, the very odd behavior sticking out started Friday Oct. 18th and has recently accelerated this week, that's my final pre-F_O_M_C take and I'll likely be looking at trading assets from here out while keeping an eye out.
Intraday there's nothing too exciting about today except in a few places, it's more that recent trend.
I wouldn't feel very good right now being long, these trends are just too clear. REMEMBER TO WATCH OUT FOR THAT KNEE-JERK REACTION, MOST OF THE TIME IT IS WRONG.
Shorts in the heaviest R3K shorts are doing great today, but it's the trend and the action today that is notable.
THE RUSSELL 3000 Most Shorted Index held with the market then started falling like most every other indicator and today, well you see what's going on today,
nearly 5 days of gains wiped out this morning alone.
It's not been the intraday 1 min charts that have been interesting, it's the slightly longer like this SPY 3 min chart, again the last several days with a real change in character.
The QQQ, and this chart is even worse zoomed out, it's just the most definitive action is here.
The IWM and look at the range, that's where we usually find distribution.
It's funny as I talk to some other people, shorts are upset the market is slowly melting up every day and longs are upset that the market is slowly melting up everyday with no solid gains, volume, or follow through and the averages dispersed.
Yesterday and today's NYSE intraday TICK which barely made it out of the +/- 750 range and is clearly trending down today, more stocks are ticking down than up as we move through the day.
This is my custom SPY/TICK indicator, focus on the histogram at the bottom and...
For the trend since the 9th, it was up as it should have been and then flipped.
The UVXY (as many thinks it tracks better than VXX) or VXX both have the same recent trend, but you didn't even need 3C to see it, just compare it to the SPX.
Here I inverted the SPX's price (green) so you can see what the normal correlation would look like, but VXX (Short term VIX futures) seems to be well bid today.
The actual VIX futures are not only strategically positive on a 60 min chart, but tactically as well on the 5 min chart above.
Credit or at least HYG which is a SPY arbitrage asset and therefore subject to manipulation had me concerned in 1 respect, that was the long term 30/60 min charts, even recently I posted some changes, but still concern.
All of the sudden the 60 min chart is clearly negative in the closest thing to a range HYG has seen, all of the sudden I'm not so concerned anymore.
*If I wanted the extra exposure, I'd consider HYG puts here.
HYG 60 min transforms from in line/ trend confirmation to distribution.
And the cycle off 10.9 with accumulation at the lows and strong distribution which was the first thing I picked up on, that Friday (Oct 18th), the 1 and 5 min charts leading negative quickly.
Yields have broken down again today, they tend to attract the market toward them, but are a great leading indicator.
On a longer scale, a positive divegrence in Yields at the 10/9 lows and a deep leading negative now.
On an even longer scale (that's why I showed the chart above because the positive above almost disappears here, we have numerous leading signals, none worse than the current one.
Even commodities as I've been pointing out.
Finally, the Black Swan Index of the CBOE's SKEW, I think we were the first to cover it even before it shot up as the ROC changed, now it's quite elevated indicating an increased probability of an improbable event, a market crash or black swan.
I have to say, I don't see a smoking gun intraday except the MSI above, but I think there's been one looking us in the face all this time in every daily wrap since the 18th.
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