Yesterday I closed these at a bit better than break-even out of an abundance of caution and because I thought I could get them cheaper today, Had I closed them today I would have taken a 9% loss currently rahter than a slight gain.
I will get charts up of AAPL, but my main concerns were the 30 and 60 min charts being so strong or at least in line with price, that's not the case anymore.
This is EXTREMELY speculative and will be treated as such, right before the F_O_M_C, BUT I'M USE TO THE KNEE JERK REACTION, I KNOW THAT I'M NOT LIKELY TO PANIC IF A KNEE-JERK GOES AGAINST ME INITIALLY, MAYBE I'D EVEN ADD ON IT, YOU HAVE TO BE COMFORTABLE WITH THAT KIND OF RISK TOLERANCE.
I'VE SEEN THESE KNEE JERKS REACTIONS AND HOW THEY ARE MOST OFTEN WRONG FOR A DECADE, THAT'S WHAT MY CONFIDENCE IS BASED ON, REALLY THIS IS A VERY INDIVIDUAL DECISION.
I will go with December $535 Puts... Charts are coming.
Translate
Risk Management
Get the Most Out of Your Experience
- * Understanding the Head-Fake Move Part 1
- * Understanding the Head-Fake Move Part 2
- * The Holy Grail of Investing and Trading-MUST READ-MUST UNDERSTAND IF YOU WANT TO EVER MAKE CONSISTENT MONEY IN THE MARKETS
- * Member's Video-SWING TRADE ONE ENTRY SYSTEM
- * Placing Stops-What you should consider...
- * A Currency Crisis
- * A Currency Crisis Continued...
Email Me
My Charting Software
3C Quick Start
Many of the charts you see here at WOWS are my proprietary indicator 3C which reveals underlying institutional money movements and often contradicts price. To understand the annotations made on charts, you must first understand that 3C has no numerical value, it is a pure divergence indicator. Positive divergences represent accumulation by smart money, negative divergences represent distribution by smart money and when 3C trades with price, that is trend confirmation.
The chart annotation system is simple; white arrows represent relative positive divergences, red arrows represent relative negative divergences and green arrows represent trend confirmation. When 3C is in a white or red box, that represents a leading positive or negative divergence, leading divergences are the most powerful.
We analyse 3C in multiple timeframes, the longer the timeframe the stronger the accumulation. 1-2 min timeframes represent intraday moves, a 5 min timeframe can represent a day or two and 15 min timeframes average trends of a swing trade nature. 30 and 60 min charts can move the market for a month or more and daily charts can be over a year.
You'll get use to seeing the charts and understanding how the multiple timeframe analysis works and works well.
Welcome to Wolf on Wall Street.
The trades featured here are meant to maximize returns with the least risk and highest probabilities. Unless otherwise mentioned, all trades are meant to be executed at market. I prefer long-term trending trades which perform well in rising markets, but really stand out in declining markets. However, we get occasional one day gifts 30,40,60% 1-day gains. I'd urge you to consider taking some or all off the table in such cases, the markets don't give gifts like that often or for very long. Most of the returns that make the system outperform so well come in short-entry trades. If you are opposed to short trades, this is not the system for you, unless you are ok with buying an inverse ETF. If you would like more information about the truth about shorting stocks, just email me.
Risk management. I recommend a specific and consistent risk management approach to all positions. In most cases we try for 2% risk money (2% of portfolio) unless such a position size exceeds 15-20% of overall portfolio in actual position size. Each trader is different and each has a different allowance of open trades. I like to keep the overall money in the trade around 10-15% of portfolio per position in case of gaps against you. Stops are generally executed at the end of day and I personally never place a stop order, all my stops are mental; remember, the middle man gets to see everyone's cards. When you are not in tune with the market or opportunities just aren't that spectacular, I take my risk per position down to 1% or even half a percent of portfolio value.
Each trader is different and must determine their own level of comfort with risk. I do have a channel stop which I provide to TeleChart/StockFinder users for automated stops, I appreciate you using my links to sign up if you do. The Trend Channel catches trends and works well as it automatically adjusts for each stock's volatility. Arbitrary exits based on nervousness about the markets WILL decrease the portfolio performance dramatically. This system will not ever get you in at market bottoms or tops. The recent 1 year performance against the Russell 2k buy and hold had the system beating it by 3:1. Ultimately it is up to you as to how you proceed, but I'm always available to help you determine what might work best for you.
Risk management. I recommend a specific and consistent risk management approach to all positions. In most cases we try for 2% risk money (2% of portfolio) unless such a position size exceeds 15-20% of overall portfolio in actual position size. Each trader is different and each has a different allowance of open trades. I like to keep the overall money in the trade around 10-15% of portfolio per position in case of gaps against you. Stops are generally executed at the end of day and I personally never place a stop order, all my stops are mental; remember, the middle man gets to see everyone's cards. When you are not in tune with the market or opportunities just aren't that spectacular, I take my risk per position down to 1% or even half a percent of portfolio value.
Each trader is different and must determine their own level of comfort with risk. I do have a channel stop which I provide to TeleChart/StockFinder users for automated stops, I appreciate you using my links to sign up if you do. The Trend Channel catches trends and works well as it automatically adjusts for each stock's volatility. Arbitrary exits based on nervousness about the markets WILL decrease the portfolio performance dramatically. This system will not ever get you in at market bottoms or tops. The recent 1 year performance against the Russell 2k buy and hold had the system beating it by 3:1. Ultimately it is up to you as to how you proceed, but I'm always available to help you determine what might work best for you.
I do use other scans and systems when market conditions warrant their use and may change strategy with market conditions.
The MOST IMPORTANT tool you have to bring you long term success is RISK MANAGEMENT. There are plenty of articles linked at Trade-Guild.net on Risk Management. We can be wrong 75% of the time and still outperform the market with solid, consistent risk management.
Position Sizing
The position sizes noted in the positions @ 2% risk of portfolio are based on a $20,000 portfolio-adjust as needed. Due to tight stops, there is the possibility, even probability that one position could take up the entire portfolio. You need to decide how many positions you want to trade and reduce the position size according to that. For instance, if you want to trade 5 positions in a $20,000 portfolio, no one position should be valued at more than $4,000-not risk money or 2% rule, but share price entry x shares.
Blog Archive
- ► 2014 (2868)
-
▼
2013
(5102)
-
▼
October
(341)
-
▼
Oct 30
(19)
- FB as a Barometer
- FB After Earnings & a Note
- Trade Set Up: Transports
- Looked at FB for Earnings
- Closing AAPL Dec. $535 PUT
- PCLN Update and Example
- All of Our Positions Are Moving the Right Way
- Quick Update
- Several good intraday indications for knee-jerk up
- Several QE sensitive assets moving toward a move up
- Quick Intraday Update
- AAPL Charts
- Trade Idea: AAPL Dec. $535 Puts
- Last Pre-F_O_M_C Market Update
- GS Follow Up
- QQQ / SQQQ / QID Update
- Market Update
- A.M. Observations
- Questions About 3C?
-
▼
Oct 30
(19)
-
▼
October
(341)
- ► 2012 (5120)
- ► 2011 (4731)
Useful Links
My Blog List
-
-
Futures Update BR-EXIT Edition - So the conventional wisdom couldn't have been more wrong. Those chasing risk and closing hedges couldn't be in a worse place right now. I would still remin...8 years ago
No comments:
Post a Comment