Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Questions About 3C?

This is really a topic for a larger discussion about the realities of how smart money moves in to and of of positions, but charts like these may have caused you to wonder, "What's going on already?

First, smart money buys weakness and sells strength, they have to due to their size otherwise they'd crash a market around themselves just trying unwind a position and it take a lot longer as they have to do it in a way in which no one else picks up, if their "Iceberg" is pinged and caught by an HFT, their gonna lose money as they sell or buy as the HFT will front run them the entire time.

As I said though, this is a topic for a wider discussion, not midnight.

Charts like these have had very clear positive and then negative divergences (accumulation then distribution). Remember how I always say Hedge funds pack together just like retail, The AAPL and Dan Loeb -45% plunge is a perfect example, 3C wouldn';t give consistient signals if they didn't.

The net buyers? Why do you think volume is so low and prices are so hard to sustain needing arbitrage games and carry pairs to hold them together? Retail's the net buyer.

 Financials distribution, that's why we are long FAZ.

SPY distribution, that's why we are long SPXU

QQQ distribution, that's why I featured QQQ/QID and SQQQ today

IWM distribution, that's why we are long SRTY, all trading positions...

Now the punchline, from Bank of America / Merrill Lynch 


BofA Merrill Lynch equity strategists report data on what their clients are doing in the U.S. stock market on a weekly basis.

Last week, BAML's hedge fund clients unloaded the most stock since 2008, while institutions and retail clients were net buyers.

 Net sales were entirely due to hedge funds, whose net sales were the largest since December 2008, and the second-largest in our data history.

Second largest distribution period among hedge funds in the history of record keeping...

Hmmm, might we be on to something? 

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