The Dow is there, 16k is in the books, today although the SPX almost lost it around 1:30-2 p.m., a late day ramp after most contracts were closed and the pin released was ramped in to the close and the SPX of $4k and missed it by just over 9 points!!! Unreal, with a ramp they can't get 9 stinking points?
The EUR/JPY was still the ramp of choice today as the Euro was able to maintain some strength...
Even with 3 BOJ officials and the PM of Japan all singing the same song, "The Yen is not too weak", apparently currency traders and/or carry traders feel differently.
However even with the carry pair carrying the SPX to 1800, they still needed a late day ramp to get things done, HYG which was trading at a loss most of the day was ramped in to the close to hold on to SPX 1800.
In addition to using HYG, the VIX too had to be smashed lower in to the close to get the ramp off and maintain +$1800, it really sounds like a lot of work for a half percent.
If the action in Short Term VIX futures has anything to do with it, then expect the VIX to sail upwards (the market moves opposite the VIX, thus today's closing smash of the VIX).
This is exactly why I went ahead and re-opened the VIX call position as I said I would after closing it early this week for an 8% loss rather than take a bigger loss.
I also closed the AAPL call, I just don't trust this market to hold a call in AAPL as you could probably tell by some of the positions today.
The P/L came t a loss of -6.35%
Among other Leading Indicators, Sentiment which was shown in an earlier update never recovered today, it has no arbitrage value so there's no reason to ramp it unless the pros believe in the ramp which the apparently didn't as both closed lower and were out of sync with the SPX all day probably for the first time this week (both).
Gold ended the day pretty much flat so the Taper On sentiment seems to have dissipated as the initial F_O_M_C minutes knee jerk wore off, but gold hasn't shown any gains yet, there's a good chance it needs more lateral time (bases).
However Treasuries, 10 and 30 year, did rally today modestly, the $USD gave back most of the knee-jerk reaction which is killing the USD/JPY carry.
Other than that we had a short squeeze and with shorts as low as they already are, things could get very interesting if today's underlying trade was representative of what we should expect next week. I have a feeling the early Thursday shopping (Black Thursday) and Black Friday) may be more than a little disappointing with everyone on edge over OB-Care.
As for odds and ends, we did have 2 averages today with Dominant Price/Volume Relationships for the first time in 3 days (although not all of them), they were the SPX which made 1800 and the R2K which doesn't have a similar target, both saw their components dominant in Close Up/Volume Down, this is the most bearish of the 4 possible combinations and suggests a 1-day overbought condition, typically the following trading day closes down, but that's more when all of the averages share the same relationship, perhaps we see the SPX/Dow/R2K down as they have hit or don't have targets while the QQQ needs about a +0.20% gain to hit its target.
A quick look through the Breadth charts and we find even with the SPX 1800 today, the NYSE Advance Decline line hasn't moved at all and still hasn't past October's highs, this is trouble, in fact it actually closed even lower than it was earlier in the week when I pointed it out.
The NASDAQ 100 A/D line also hasn't made a higher high for the month, although not as bad as the NYSE's. The NASDAQ Comp's A/D line is the same as the NYSE's still hasn't made a higher high, still hasn't passed October's high.
Stocks above their 200-day has remained flat despite the ramp as has even the percentage of stocks above their 40-day moving average, it makes you wonder where the stocks came form for the R3K MSI squeeze? You'd think it would be the momo stocks, but both the % stocks 1 and 2 standard deviations above their 40-day ma also haven't made a new high and are in fact lower..
Although stocks below their 40 day moving average increased this week, the normal ones and the 1 and 2 standard deviation variants.
Breadth is pretty strange given the TICK Index today, not extreme's but in the upper half most of the day.
I'll take a closer look at internals this week, but it's clear there's been a lot of work to meet these goals that started with accumulation on Tuesday, Wednesday maybe through the plan off track, but they didn't accumulate anymore, in fact the opposite, just used anything they could to lever the market higher.
I'll post some of these charts as you can see the desperation in them.
In any case, the MAX Pain of SPY 178.50 which needed a close above that level as we speculated $1800 would do it this morning, saw a successful pin.
Have a great weekend, talk to you soon (posts to come)
No comments:
Post a Comment