UNG Update

It has been a while since we have visited UNG, this appears to be a much larger base than I anticipated back in early 2012 when we first noticed a change in character and changes in character lead to changes in trend which is what happened here. I was asked by a newer member if we follow NG and I decided to put up a quick update of UNG, although it deserves a much more thorough update than I have time for now.

My opinion is still the same, this is a huge base, the kind I saw in 2000 during the Tech meltdown in Homebuilders of all places! So my opinion is still the same, UNG or NG is very likely to see a primary (bull market) up trend at some point in what I imagine must be the near future as this is already a very large base. Some of you who got in when we entered April of 2012 likely still have a profit there.


To give you some idea and to also show a very interesting chart that I use to start my classes with to show how smart money plans things way in advance, here's HOV (HomeBuilder) during the Tech bubble.

This is HOV (green) vs the NASDAQ (red) note the rotation of money out of the NASDAQ and in to the base of HOV, here's the accumulation which was over a year and a half...

HOV accumulation, after this HOV gained +2500%

The question is who in the world would have thought boring housing was going to lead the next bull market after the tech revolution and knew about it at least 2-3 years in advance?
UNG has a similar type or length of base/accumulation.

The change in character in UNG was seen long before this lateral base formed. The size of the base is immense, similar to the homebuilders around 2000.

Look at the trend 3C chart, going from downside confirmation to accumulation in the range.

More recently, the 60 min chart, you'll notice distribution in most charts at the last two highs and recent accumulation.

The same on the 30 min chart

And the 15 min chart which is good confirmation.

The same on the 5 min chart

And the 3 min chart.

I'm not saying this is the ideal area to look at UNG long unless you are looking at this as a long term trade and are willing to give it the space it needs in terms of the stop and time, but we will be looking at it closer in coming days as it seems to me there's a similar switch like we saw in 2000 from Tech to homebuilders and UNG may not drive the next bull market, but I do think it will see its own bull market.