Friday, November 22, 2013

GOOG Update

I wanted to get this one out, but I think we still have plenty of time with it.

The last time I covered GOOG I mentioned that I would have wanted to look at GOOG as a core short or add to > $1000, but realistically I had no idea how it would get there until earnings ramped it right to that level, ironic?

I also mentioned that it would be highly unlikely for smart money to chase GOOG in that area to buy, they'd much more likely use the area to sell or short, even if they thought GOOG was fairly price because it's such a rapid "apparent" mis-pricing, in any case the point is, if they were buyers, it was below $1k, there's simply too much risk and not enough profit potential to even seriously consider GOOG up there especially in the size they trade, their orders alone could knock it in to the gap.

I went further and showed you the trend of distribution while GOOG has been up there. I like it as a core short, it has only been a matter of finding the appropriate time to enter so we're not stuck in that lateral range.

GOOG looks to be entering that tactical stage now.

 This is the underlying trend on a large scale- 60 min chart, so it's obvious institutional money hasn't been buyers or even hold, but have been using the gift to unload,

The chart above this would be a strategic view, the tactical entry is just as important so that's something we've been watching and waiting for, on a very short timeframe of 2 min intraday, there's really clear distribution so this looks like the fuse.

In a mid term timeframe like 15 mins, we have the same. The idea with a stock like GOOG that has a 60 min negative is to get the intermediate and short timeframes all aligned, that's what is happening now.

I haven't had enough time to look VERY closely and see if there's a likely opportunity to sell in to strength, but above $1k I think qualifies, beyond that I'd truly be getting myopic. However the time factor does matter as I said above, I don't want to be sitting in  a huge pile of opportunity cost.

I'd say the tactical charts are either coming or are in alignment and the fact they are in alignment with the market makes it that much stronger of a case.

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