EOD Market Update

I was obliged to collect more data and make sure that what I'm seeing is what I think it is.

As I've said early this week and the last day or so, the only reason I can imagine Tuesday's accumulation took place was to hit the magic levels, Dow 16k, NASDAQ Comp 4k and SPX 1800.

Dow closed yesterday >$16k
The Comp is at $3988.45, a +.45% move today was worth 19 points so it's not that far from $4k, the SPX is at $1802.87 on a +.39% gain, mission accomplished and it seems they had to use a short squeeze because there's no other manipulative tools left right now.

As I always say, the last 2 hours of op-ex Friday's price doesn't matter, it's the 3C signals that pick up where they left off the next trading day, Monday even though we have a holiday shortened week, it may be just what we need with Black Friday and all.

Here's the data, it's what I hoped to see even though price is trying to make those benchmarks, everything below is falling apart.

The Yen prevents them from using the carry trade and it looks like it's about to send the market down if the market's correlation keeps up.

 Again, 5 min Yen chart, if the leading positive pulls the Yen up, there goes the Nikkei and likely US markets as well as EUR/JPY falls apart.

They couldn't use the Yen carry trades today because of the basing in the Yen, so it's short squeeze, after this really how many shorts are left? Just about none, not a good scenario for a market decline as there are no natural, committed buyers (shorts have to buy and cover in the future, but they aren't there).

The R3K Most Shorted Index vs the SPX in green shows the short squeeze that resulted in today's move, the TICK index confirms it.

Here's the desperate attempt top get the N.COMP over $4k in the NYSE TICK.

They couldn't use credit, remember credit is a much better informed market, thus "Credit leads, stocks follow", then this is trouble.

 HYG in blue/SPX in green, this chart doesn't do this justice, but look at the closing levels (green for SPX and red for HYG) from yesterday, HYG is massively underperforming.

It's little wonder...

 This is the 3C chart for HYG, solid distribution in to a flat range as that's where we see distribution most often, in a flat range.

As for High Yield Credit, it's even worse than yesterday

 I showed last night how HY Credit was not biting on any market moves, today is even worse, also no wonder...

HY Credit's 15 min 3C chart, this is a hollow shell, it never recovered from the entire year's gains lost in 2-days during the Spring/early summer.

Pros are moving out, sentiment continues to decline.

 FCT is better for intraday, not biting on this move as they know what it is, headlines only.

HYG is better for trend, you can see the last 2-days, not biting, not taking the bait, but using the move to get the hell out of dodge (pardon my French).

VIX futures are still showing an extreme panic over there, I did go ahead and pick up UVXY long, it is a trading position, nothing more.

This was 2 and 3 min and this is a 5 min move in a single day!

They are racing for protection.

I'll show you the massive deterioration in ES later, for now the averages. I probably don't need to explain what they show, I'll just label them to save time.

 SPY 2 min intraday in to those highs, $16K+

SPY 5 min at the same

QQQ 3 min in to 4k

5 min, note previous confirmation.

QQQ 10 min

IWM 1 min, I love the IWM short, SRTY long or IWM puts.

3 min IWM, look at 3C and price, that's telling you something.

 Longer term IWM 15 min in to the bearish Channel Buster set up

And the 4 hour chart in to the Channel Buster.

I'm pretty satisfied.