Monday, December 16, 2013

Leading Indicators...

Leading Indicators suggest that we are both in a real bounce and that it is losing support as we go, but it still has gas in the tank, it paints a picture a little more negative than the market update, but not much more.

HY credit is underperforming on the day and HYG is underperforming on the day, VXX is outperforming on the day vs the correlation, see below.

 The SPX (green) is inverted so we can see the normal correlation that is 1.0, but here we see VXX outperforming the correlation, again the reason I would not short VXX/volatility last week. I think VXX is going to be the first place we are going to see a change moving toward the end of the bounce and the resumption of a leg lower.

Commodities are underperforming on the day and Sentiment indicators are split, 1 is in line with a slight negative bias, the other was the same, but has recently improved like the intraday market charts.

Yields
 I was just talking about the leading/predictive nature of yields vs SPX (green) as seen above, however intraday...

Like I posted last night, near term reversion to the mean.

While Yields called for a bounce and still support further gains, there is deterioration visible already.

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