Monday, December 16, 2013

Market Update

Like I said before, I don't know if this is just a patch of softness, maybe a gap fill or the rotation we have been seeing as the averages come unglues from each other more and more every week.

The other possibility is that we are seeing distribution as it happens within this bounce, it doesn't mean the bounce is done, but the distribution events are strong enough to show up clearly.

Also as I said, it's not universal through the averages, some Index averages in the 1 min timeframe look like the DIA, others do not.

Ultimately I think it may provide some volatility, but shouldn't change the shape of what we expect too much.
 DIA 1 min clear intraday negative

IWM 2 min intraday negative

IWM 5 min shows the positive, but already damage being done or distribution at higher prices.

QQQ 2 min looks good, this seems rotational as I said.

 QQQ 5 min shows the same as the IWM 5 min though.

SPY intraday in line

And 5 min looking better than IWM or QQQ

I believe signals in the VXX / UVXY will lead the way to tell us when to make our moves, close short duration longs and enter shorts again in trading portfolios.

VXX 2 min shows weakness, this contradicts the DIA, but agrees with the SPY and QQQ

3 min shows more weakness

However the larger trend at 15 min shows a very strong trend that started to move, I believe it will pick up from there and create and second and likely third leg up.

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