I have a GS April $165 Put and honestly if I didn't already have so much financial exposure, I might add to it as I did leave room to do so. I would certainly consider a non-leveraged equity short, I think you can have a stop not too far away and have a good risk/reward ratio given GS, Financials and the overall market.
Here are the charts...
Longer term 2 hour you can see this is a soft patch for GS with a leading negative divegrence, I think it's probably at least worth a position trade and probably a longer trade, but again I think the risk of putting a stop a bit above (I prefer a wider stop and fewer shares on an initial position) is reasonable.
The hourly chart shows softness in the same area.
On an intraday basis that includes both this week and the Jan 27 through Feb 5th accumulation period, here's what we have, GS after following Financials to a breakout/head fake area is seeing the same kind of divergences - 1 min
The 2 min migration is pretty darn sharp.
The 5 min could be more impressive, but there are some other charts I think make up for it and this timeframe can move quickly.
For instance this 10 min makes up for the 5 min not being as negative as I'd like to see.
As far as the major cycle from the end of Jan to early February, you can see the end of that accumulation area and the very flat range of it and on a 30 min chart not only a strong relative/leading negative, but an additional leading negative the last day or so.
All in all, I do like GS in this area short.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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