Thursday, March 6, 2014

Quick Update-Patience

Patience right now is very difficult to have, but please recall the USD/JPY post from about an hour or so ago, I thought we'd get some downside and we did, it looks like the SPY caught down to that weakness, but also remember that intraday 1 min the $USDX was building a positive divergence that I thought might give a little support to the FX pair and thus the market, here's what the 1 min $USD now looks like...
It is now ready to make that intraday move I mentioned in the rather hard to follow post, but also remember that the 5 min $USD negative that has already seen a move down is a more important chart and ultimately (which is still very short term as in intraday to a day), that chart trumps the 1 min.

So as the SPY has seen some downside and BIDU as well, I think it could see a little support, I'm not entirely sure if this is just intraday semantics or a freeze/pin in front of the NFP, this is why I'm trying to maintain patience.

However in a sign of the times and the market's position right now, compare HYG (High Yield Corporate Credit), the asset used as a market lever to ramp the market and compare it to the SPX, it not only saw a widening negative dislocation as a leading indicator yesterday, but it continues to get trounced today, other than the loss of the lever, remember "Credit leads, stocks follow".

I'll try to get some more detailed charts of the averages, VXX, Financials, etc up, but it's a fast moving market and the currency craziness is what is moving a lot of it, so far the convoluted FX post from earlier has been right on, if it continues to be, then the market gets some intraday support from the decline it is seeing right now, but again, the 5 min chart of $USD (negative) ultimately beats the 1 min chart so that's the direction of resolution as far as probabilities, meaning market down.

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