Thursday, March 6, 2014

SPY Market Update

On Monday I said that the SPY had the best looking underlying charts and since then I've said it's had the best looking 3C charts on a relative basis vs the other averages, what I can't figure out though right now is why with the support of USD/JPY, they still need to try to manipulate the market using HYG , TLT and VXX , the SPY Arbitrage lever which I don't think I've seen in a month or so? Earlier they moved TLT, but it is accumulating (in other words safety or the flight to safety trade is being accumulated),  they have slammed the VIX lower in to the afternoon much like yesterday and are fooling with HYG which together create the strongest market manipulation lever, the SPY Arbitrage. Why all the need for so many levers unless ... Well that's really a rhetorical question, but on the serious side, the Employment Situation tomorrow at 8:30 (Non-Farm Payrolls) or perhaps an op-ex max pain pin?

I'll get to the other averages, probably after the close.

Until the close, the USD/JPY support is there,  that should be enough...

 SPY 2 min intraday is not looking as good as it was, the other averages are worse.

You see the accumulation we saw Monday and now the distribution on the 3 min chart.

SPY 5 min, it was the only average to make it to 5 mins on Monday (accumulation-1 day).

Here's Monday and the 10 min leading negative and an obvious fall off in momentum.

And Monday as I said, the SPY made it to 5 min but not beyond, the 15 min is leading negative which is substantial, but still for the EOD, the USD.JPY should be enough.

Of course the larger problem for the SPY, 60 min

This is HYG, you can see they are trying to move it here, even though it has fallen out after months of support.

They slammed the VIX like yesterday

And earlier TLT activating the SPY arb. while TLT accumulates on the cheap.

Why all the effort using all of these manipulation levers?


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