Thursday, June 19, 2014

A.M. Update

Overnight Index futures traded in a thin, flat range, similar to what we saw last night. Gold futures are the ones moving, just hitting a new high for the week and the highest level since 5/27 on a pullback at the end of May. In fact this morning "someone" took on a large block position of almost half a billion dollars.

Almost half a billion dollars at this 1 min bar. This has Gold miners up in pre-market again.

Initial Claims at 8:30 had a slight miss coming in at 312 vs consensus of 311.90. Both Initial and Continuing claims are near cyclical lows, Continuing are now at the lowest since November of 2007.

We also have the Philly F_E_D at 10 a.m. and Leading Indicators at 10 a.m. with Nat Gas inventories at 10:30 and F_E_D Balance sheet at 4:30.

As for charts, yesterday's lack of confirmation on a clear VIX whack-amole induced short squeeze (oddly with the help of SPY arbitrage), it has moved some of the longer Index futures.

 ES 5 min (5 min charts are the first time frame in Index futures that are worthwhile watching beyond intraday) saw a sharp negative overnight.

Meanwhile the risk on carry trade, USD/JPY continued to sell off overnight as it did just after the F_O_M_C.
5 min USD/JPY overnight lost even more ground even though the Bank of Japan has been aggressively lifting offers below $102, defending the $102 level which we are now under.

As mentioned yesterday, I'm going to keep yesterday's UVXY trade open this morning as well as IWM spec. put position as the F_O_M_C knee jerk effect is well documented, thus the reason I always warn of it, typically lasting 2 hours to 2 days before reversing as the initial move tends to always be faded. If I see a good reason like market average price confirmation, I'll likely move out of those positions, but with evidence, not on emotion or knee jerk reactions.

The next data is 10 a.m. with the Philly F_E_D.



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