Thursday, June 19, 2014

NFLX Update

NFLX ( a large H&S top, verified by volume) is one of the short ideas for this week that I expected to bounce , giving us a better entry, I'm already at full position size with about -5.5% drawdown (on position), which is more than manageable, but I wouldn't be opposed to opening a put if conditions were right and of course calling it out for anyone who may be interested, but didn't get a chance yet.

NFLX is at the top of the right shoulder, the 2nd out of 3 places I'll short a H&S, so it's at a good entry level as well as risk level. I'm not calling it out right now (today), the 1-3 min charts don't look quite as I'd like to see them (that may be because of quad-witching tomorrow), but at this level and considering the bigger picture, I wouldn't be opposed to a partial position (short) here and even if it fills the gap and starts a bit lower, it's still more than close enough to the top of the right shoulder that it lowers risk and provides and excellent entry.

The charts...
 This is the small accumulation of last week that was seen in several assets I'm interested in and why I expected them to bounce this week, lowering risk and giving a better entry for a short.

The 5 min chart is showing deterioration, overall price action is fairly bearish.

Nothing has changed on the charts that matter, the ones that make me want to have NFLX as a short, in fact it's one of my favorite short ideas out there among stocks (non-ETFs). 15 min

 60 min in to the H&S head and right shoulder

4 hour with the preceding uptrend confirmation and distribution in to the full H&S top.

This looks to be at a reasonable level considering we expected a bounce this week to short in to, as I said though, I'm not worried about NFLX at all, I'd just like to see the 1-3 min charts looking a bit worse, more in line with the market averages.

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