Quick Market Update

I have some other things to look at, but the market is struggling and it seems all favors are being called in, which may have a lot to do with a Max Pain Quad Witching tomorrow.


The problem seems to be the MSI gave out today, plus there have been negative signals all day...

The Russell 3000 Most Shorted Index with a squeeze yesterday tick for tick with the SPX, that's why there was no accumulation before hand.

Today it's not working so good, actually underperforming the SPX.

First it looks like they've turned to the SPY Arbitrage as it is in full force...

 SPY Arb is way ahead of the SPY for the day, yet the SPY hasn't responded yet.

One monkey wrench may be TLT, this was obviously a big part of that dislocation between the bullish SPY Arb model and underperformance of the SPY...

TLT which has to fall for the SPY Arb. lever to work (with VIX falling and HYG going up or some version of that as far as relative performance) looks as it may have just found a intraday bottom with that volume, a mini-selling climax, I'm going to take a closer look as it would be quite interesting if the SPY Arb has been this strong all day and failed to move the SPY, what happens if it gives out.

Again, another indication yesterday was a knee jerk as they have to turn to SPY Arb in a huge way just to hold the SPY at a slight loss/neutral. That's a long way off from next day confirmation.