Thursday, June 19, 2014

Trade Idea: AAPL SPECULATIVE Call

AAPL was one of several assets including transports, NFLX, etc. that we expected to bounce this week which would make interesting areas to short in to the price strength, AAPL has not moved out of a tight range, but it looks like it will finally bounce, this is not a play I'm very interested in just because of the higher probability charts for AAPL, if I were to play it, it would be VERY speculative with some calls.

I'm much more interested in shorting short term price strength, which was the idea last week/Friday for this week.


 This is what I saw last week that made me think AAPL will bounce this week (3 min chart), instead we've seen a range, but we often see accumulation/distribution in ranges.

This week the 5 min chart shows a relative positive in the range, making an AAPL bounce look higher probability.

 And that divergence goes out to 15 minutes as you see above from this week.


 This is the same 15 min chart to provide some context and...

This 60 min chart is why I'm more interested in the short price strength, but near term the probabilities of that AAPL bounce finally taking shape are increasing.

I'll let you know if I decide to take on a speculative position, but it would likely be 1/4 normal size.

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