Trade Idea: Transports/ FDX

I have my stock and ironically, it's one that showed up in my DeMark-inspired Buy/Sell indicator scan as a sell, FDX.

Here's what I like about it...

 First as a double top (this isn't as large as a true double top if we're going by the textbook) or more appropriately, a clear zone of resistance, I'd expect the probabilities to be very high for a head fake move above, especially in light of last week's call for transports to bounce and that bounce could be used to set up a short.

Second we have a bearish reversal pattern on the daily chart in place thus far, a Harami (mother with baby in Japanese vernacular). There's also no follow through move today at all.

 As far as my buy/sell DeMark inspired indicator, the long term scan (I ran daily and multi-day) shows pretty good signal calls with both buys and sells.

The shorter 1 day gave a signal May 30th, at the last or second part of the double top.

 As for the long term 2 hour chart, we have an accumulation zone back in 2013, over a year ago and the trend after is proportional with the accumulation zone or stage 1, 3C starts going negative at the first of the double tops and leads negative in to the second.

 The 60 min chart shows something similar, with just stronger distribution at the second top, which is what the 2 hour chart above is showing with the deeper leading negative divergence.

On a 15 min chart, yesterday's move looks to be pure knee jerk as there's no accumulation before the move at all. To the left there's a negative divegrence in to the second top.

  On a 3 min chart, there's no confirmation at all of yesterday's move, the same as the chart above, there's also no accumulation for yesterday's move which again smells of knee-jerk reaction to the F_O_M_C.

The only small accumulation as it is on a 2 min chart is the very same that I saw last week in transports making me think we'd get a bounce higher we can short in to, if it was a 15 min chart with accumulation I wouldn't think about shorting in to it, but a 2 min chart, it's like I often say, if you only have a gallon of gas, you're only going to go so far, that's the same for base size and accumulation size/timeframes.

Also we have a clear negative in to the move up.

I'm going to open a half size position in July (standard) 19th $145 puts, I'll open the second half if this scenario plays out, if not, I'll manage that trade and look for the next set up (the reason I chose options rather than equity at this point is the strong move up which is what I prefer to set options trades up with, extreme moves).

This is a Harami (bearish) downside reversal set up (last 2-days), often the confirmation candle is seen the next day or the day after and almost every good (bearish) confirmation candle will start with a gap up and a close below the Harami's second candle (today's), this would include Dark Cloud Cover and Bearish Engulfing Candles. I'll set a price alert a little above this area looking for a gap in the a.m., if we get that and the 3C charts still look strong, I'll bring the put position up to full-size.