Wednesday, July 2, 2014

A.M. Update

Dow 17k today? It's a huge pschological magnet, a millennial number, whole number, new high, there should be tons of limit orders, for the life of me I can't figure out hoe it could have possibly missed by little more than a single point yesterday at intraday highs (1.3 points away before the market took a much more negative tone). From a sell-side point of view, it's worth hitting just for order flow, bid/ask spreads, volume rebates, I'd think for new clients as well for hedge funds, private equity, etc.

Overnight was rather dull as you'll see, the Hang Seng was up 0.95% as it was closed yesterday and more or less just catching up, the Nikkei was up +.30% which is up, but well under yesterday's performance at this time.

8:15 a.m. ADP came in at the biggest beat since late 2012 and the best print since late 2012, although ADP is known as a noisy data series that few take seriously, being it's in front of tomorrows Initial Claims and the moved forward Non-Farm Payrolls (as the market is closed Friday), it seems to have sparked some movement in currencies, the USD/JPY in particular...
 USD/JPY overnight and pre-market, the spike is on the ADP data, however, it did little to move Index futures...

ES 1 min premarket

NQ

TF

and the $USDX

The AUD/JPY which has been the closest carry trade to leading the market at least yesterday say disappointing May trade data and lost ground overnight...

AUD/JPY

As far as the main event of the day, other than all of the data coming at us over the next day and a half, is Janet Yellen speaking or "lecturing" at the IMF, no one knows the topic, the lecture is simply billed, "Central Bank Lecture". Interestingly there will be a Q&A after with the IMF's Managing Director, Christine Lagarde who has become increasingly vocal about financial stability and the central banks. High Yield Credit may be one topic on the agenda of the Q&A so this "could" be a market mover unless Yellen is as dull as she was droning on like she did after the F_O_M_C on 6/18.

Other data until Friday's closed market...

 Tomorrow is very heavy and a half day with NYSE and NASDAQ closing at 1 p.m., all markets are closed for the 4th on Friday.

That means there are increasingly fewer and fewer carbon life forms on Wall St. and more and more at the Hamptons, volatility could certainly be high, especially on tomorrow's NFP at 8:30 a.m.

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