I'm trying to get a feed of Yellen's IMF lecture up, she has already said some things that are more in line with Bullard's comments last week, "The Market is wrong", she's not so blatant about it, but rates are the main area where you can see she has taken a different tact than the F_O_M_C on the 18th to be more in line with Bullard, I'll get those out ASAP.
In the mean time the TICK trend as you can see with price trend is locked in almost a very neutral lateral , cautionary mode, the weakness in the leading IWM in notable and there's weakness intraday coming in to the Q's as well as all of the other averages, the larger trends make it easier to see and I'll get that out to you as soon as I can capture them, but tone is definitely deteriorating as TICK is still in the +/- 750 zone of cautionary lateral movement.
NFLX is getting interesting as well as yesterday's put position looks to have been timely, I'll try to get that update out ASAP.
As far as some of the "hints" Yellen has given that are market negative (and 3C charts of treasuries look like they want to move to the upside soon), include....
POLICY AT TIMES MAY BE APPROPRIATE TO ADDRESS RISKS
'MINDFUL' OF HOW LOW RATES CAN PROMPT 'REACH FOR YIELD' which is a direct broadside at the market, saying they understand that their ZIRP policies have forced over speculation in the market in the reach for yield, taken with the above, "Policy": appropriate to address risks which are what in the economy exactly? She's talking about the market.
RATE POLICY SHOULDN'T CHANGE OVER STABILITY CONCERN Which is ridiculous, rate policy is all the market cares about, thus the warning from Bullard that the market doesn't realize how close they are to normalizing rates. Even taken out of context of the market, rates rising are "HARDLY" good for the economy.
RATES SHOULDN'T BE MAIN TOOL ENSURING STABILITY
Again, trying to take the market's focus off rates as they seem perhaps to be set to rise a lot sooner than the F_O_M_C projected on the 18th.
I'll get in to this in deeper context later.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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