Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Early Indications

There are some interesting developments for underlying trade, the most significant thus far is the Russell 2000 futures which have been in leading positive position on a 5 min chart so far this week which has deteriorated somewhat to an in line position, this is what happened last week, although a bit faster, from leading positive to inline the next day to leading negative the day after and then the weak bounce gave out.

 ES 5 min has been the weakest of the Index futures, usually I won't trade against a 5 min chart on a short term basis, although I may take some entries that are counter trend as it starts to dissipate.

ES's 5 min chart has a negative tone, NQ is right in between ES as the weakest on the week and TF as the strongest.

TF 5 min which had been leading positive up until this morning is now in line since the positive divegrence at the week's lows Monday.

As for the averages...
 SPY has doen what was expected Friday thus far with a series of lower highs and lower lows, this morning's gap up had no confirmation and quickly failed, yet again like yesterday the degree of failure can't be seen in price or 3C alone, I'll show you at the bottom.

The 2 min chart is confirming the same, lower highs/lower lows as we expected for this week last Friday with some "Noise" along the lines of a gap fill.

SPY 3 min is showing a very clear 3C trend that has been very accurate in forecasting near term action.

The 5 min chart has what "could be" a relative positive divegrence, but this is very early, I'm not making any decisions based on this yet as it was a deep leading negative divegrence that has allowed this "apparent" divegrence to form, again it's too early and there's no back up in intraday charts for this divergence, I suspect it is just a transitory trading that hasn't caught up.

 QQQ intraday makes perfect sense-1 min

The stronger 2 min chart has been showing distribution in to any price highs, it also picked up a positive divegrence on Monday morning's lows.

 The 3 min chart , a stronger trend is also showing the same thing, distribution in to any price strength

As is the 5 min chart, again with Monday morning's lows collecting some minor accumulation.  I'm starting to suspect this move (off Monday lows) was put in place in front of the F_O_M_C which makes me wonder if there's not something already known about the policy statement.


 IWM 2 min from in line to a leading negative divegrence on today's initial gap like the rest of the averages and Index futures.

This is probably the best view of the IWM's trend, small accumulation at Monday a.m.'s lows and in line since with a strong negative divegrence on today's gap up which is showing up on the more important 5 min Index futures for Russell 2000.

The 5 min chart is essentially the same thing, it wouldn't show the same level of confirmation as this is a larger measure of institutional flow which hasn't been that large, it's off Monday's divergence only as there was no positive divegrence as of last week/Friday going in to the new week.

As far as the real damage being done and we have seen this all week as well as last week, thus the strong declines in market breadth, look at today's NYSE intraday TICK...
The open saw the highest TICK count at just over +750 which is not anything to even mention and this with a strong MSI short squeeze. Since there have been almost constant readings at -1000, -1250 and deeper.

The opening Most Shorted Index squeeze, this still couldn't do better than +750, that's weak.

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