NFLX Update

Not to be too confusing, but there are 2 open NFLX Trade Ideas, the major one is an equity short as NFLX remains one of my favorite shorts, that position is down about 3.8% as of today. The second is a NFLX Aug $420 Call (standard) that is up +37% and has more than doubled any Equity short position drawdown. I have expected a NFLX bounce and have looked toward using that as an entry or add-to short for anyone who is interested.

I'd usually take the NFLX options gains pretty quickly as I don't like spending any more time than I have to in options, I am watching NFLX, but I do suspect it has more to go on the upside barring a market event that takes everything down with an ebb tide.

Here are some recent NFLX positions and updates...

Monday July 28th Trade IDea/ Follow Up: (Swing Trade) NFLX  and Tuesday July 29th, NFLX Core Short and Call Swing Trade Follow Up

As for the charts...

 The Daily 3C chart showing several stage and just about a full cycle (actually 2 separate cycles. The daily 3C divergence right now is what is most important, I'll show the cycles on the chart below with less distractions...

From left to right, stage 2 mark-up/rally in to stage 3 top with a sharp "V" decline to stage 4 "Decline and back in to stage 1 accumulation after a capitulation event at the end of stage 4 and some drifting as is normal. Then a move to stage 2 mark-up again, however notice this time volume is not expanding with price and now stage 3, top/distribution.

 A more detailed 4 hour chart shows the divegrence getting worse on a very strong underlying timeframes at a deep leading negative divegrence.

 The 2 hour chart also shows the second divegrence much sharper and leading negative, there was a small accumulation area between the two tops at the white box.

This 10 min 3C chart of NFLX is why I have suspected it would bounce, not just the positive divegrence, but a nice rounding bottom as well.

In reality I should keep the NFLX calls open longer as this bounce base has the potential to s end NFLX higher than today's move, in fact that would just be a start.

The intraday 1 min 3C chart shows some intraday distribution/profit taking on the move thus far. If I start to see deeper migration from the 1 min chart to the 2, 3 and 5 min charts, I'll be closing the NFLX calls and looking for the add-to or new short entry, otherwise I'll try to hold the call position open as long as possible considering momentum and Theta.