I see a change in character and some divergences, this isn't a hedge and it's not quite the short I want yet, so this was meant as a counter trend move or fading the move in Z on the rumor of the Trulia purchase.
The original position from last Thursday, Trade Idea (Speculative Options) Z and the add to on Monday, Adding to Z Aug $155 Put
Thus far Z is at a gain of about +30%. I'd prefer exit the position before any bounce or lateral consolidation and re-enter on such a move.
The Z 2 min intraday is showing a leading positive divegrence, this is of course short term and I expect Z to move significantly lower, but this is an options position, not an equity short and there are other things to consider such as time decay.
The 5 min chart which has been perfectly in line since the negative divegrence sending it lower is also showing a building leading positive divegrence.
I've been using the 10-min Trend Channel to track Z as far as a stop goes, a move through the lowest point of the upper band (typically on a closing basis, but not with shorter term options) is a stop out. I suspect with these divergences in place Z is likely to move sideways a bit more before a probable bounce in which I'll be looking to re-establish a new Z Put position, perhaps even an equity short.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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