Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Trade Idea (Speculative Very Short Term) GDX Calls

This is totally separate from what I suspect we will see in GDX over the next few weeks and months which is likely a pullback and a strong long entry on that pullback. This is a very short term position (long) which is why I chose to go with GDX calls rather than a NUGT long. I'll be leaving an old DUST long position in place on the larger expectations which I recently addressed here (Monday) GLD / GDX / SLV Update

However, very short term, probably F_O_M_C knee jerk, it looks like GDX/NUGT will see a quick , short term upside move, it may even be intraday. I'm going with GDX July 8th $27.50 calls in VERY SPECULATIVE position size.

Here's why...

 GDX 1 min leading positive, similar to the market averages...

 GDX 2 min shows migration and a stronger divegrence, this is still a very small divergence and that's why I feel I need the leverage of options rather than a NUGT long.

 We go out to about a 5 min chart intraday.

GDXJ 1 min shows confirmation with a leading positive

 And migration on a 2 min

As for the larger view that I mentioned Monday (linked above), a 15 min chart like this suggests to me that GDX will pullback and the longer charts in the 60 min+ range are very positive so I suspect I'll be looking to buy the pullback, but this also caps any upside move as it is not positive in this intermediate timeframe.

NUGT -3x long GDX shows the same 1 min divegrence

As well as the same 15 min negative along the lines of a pullback considering the base size.

JNUG (3x long Junior Gold Miners) is also confirming intraday

This is the DUST position entered for a GDX pullback, I'll leave that in place...

As for DUST it should be showing intraday negative divergences...

The 2 min chart is and the longer intermediate should be positive for a GDX pullback...

The 5 min chart is, thus I think any GDX move to the upside is small and short term and in need of leverage, but there's excellent confirmation.

Even JDST is leading negative so there's confirmation among all of the variations of GDX, inverse/leveraged, etc which is some of the best confirmation we have seen in weeks here.

Again, I only expect a small, but likely intense move suited to a call position and this will be of SPECULATIVE SIZE.

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