Thursday, December 4, 2014

Leading Indicators

I'm not afraid to make a trade, but I want the best timing possible. Even though this move (other than the Russell) over Tuesday and Wednesday has been a garden variety oversold bounce, I still don't want to enter a day earlier than should be and while the Index futures move towards sharper negative divergences like what was seen leading to Monday's parabolic collapse in the market, in specific assets, there are a lot of nice looking signals, but not a lot of ones that are screaming, although many are within reach of that and could be in such position in 30 minutes should they decide to move.

Looking at Leading Indicators, the last thing I'd want to be is long. However, I also don't want to be in a chop zone for new positions, such as...
 The last 6 days of QQQ action, only -0.13% of movement.

That's opportunity cost at minimum and open risk at worst.

However the broad market is starting to scream for downside...Leading Indicators are just the latest confirmation of that...

 This is my VIX Term Structure, above 1 and it paints candles white and gives a buy signal, the opposite should hold true, although I don't use it for sell signals, but if I were too, the indicator is now at the lowest point in a year and a half, perhaps more if I looked back further.

Interestingly, VIX was SLAMMED today, around the time the Bloomberg story or "RUMOR" came out, that smells fishy.

The earlier HYG 1 min positive divegrence offered some help intraday, although it's still in the red.

High Yield Credit continues to tumble and now at an accelerated pace.

 As does professional sentiment

 TLT and Treasuries are no longer supporting the last 2 day bounce and are in "Flight to Safety " mode.

 As such, Leading Indicator, Yields is leading the SPX lower (5 year)

 As well as the more important 30 year.

30 year trend warning last Friday of what was to come in SPX Monday, 2-days of levered support and warning again.

The market seems to be screaming.

Now to find the right asset with all timeframes in place. It's days like this I'm glad I'm already set up short.

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