Market Update

A few things have been settled this morning, first the intervention some were reporting on by the BOJ to support stocks via USD/JPY is as we thought, no more than an easy money stop run at $120 before USD/JPY fell too far away from that easy psychological stop level, since USD/JPY has plunged and the rotation to the NASDAQ 100 was in place as it was way outperforming the Russell 2000 finally on a relative basis (both still red), but the plunge in USD/JPY and some initial AAPL momentum faded.

HYG is showing the signs I was looking for on the chart I was looking for so it seems that lever is finished as well.

This morning's decline hit -1500, nearly a straight channel down from yesterday afternoon's highs through this morning.

We'll surely have intraday volatility, as I believe 100%, Wall Street will never make moves obvious, they'll try to shakeout as many people as they can along the way, but the 5-7 min charts which were negative late last week/Friday which led to a deep downside move that flamed out early Monday morning on a short term oversold basis, gave way to 5 min positives which were the bounce/gap fills we had been anticipating since just after 10 a.m. Monday morning.

Now, those same charts that have been so accurate with these moves are negative as seen in this morning's A.M. Update and the macro trends in many assets are coming in to play, but I'll touch on that later. It may very well be reflecting an end or at least a slow down in global central bank activity. Why would the Euro macro trend be positive if there was to be sovereign QE which this morning we found out has just been more jawboning from Draghi and co. as they completely punted on it when the market expected "SOMETHING" at today's meeting?

Why is the Yen showing macro strength? Perhaps Abenomics is going to be crushed at Japanese snap elections mid December? This is another subject entirely, but one we'll touch on as the macro trends we have seen in 3C forecasts that have been against generally accepted views are one by one giving us answers that no one expected and crushing those views. Obviously someone knew in advance or the divergence would not have existed...they're not called "Smart Money " for nothing, even if their smarts are in the form of leaks from the NY F_E_D.

Right now IWM is roughly in line intraday as it has become the under-performer after 2 days of leading without question.

 IWM 1 min intraday close to in line with price action this morning, but the charts I have been watching to mark a change in character beyond intraday (such as the 5-7 min Index futures from this morning), are making moves here as well...

IWM 5 min with the negative divegrence late last week and Friday leading to Monday's downside move and flame out on a parabolic move and a selling climax which was followed by the accumulation for a bounce/gap fill that we anticipated minutes after the Monday morning flameout and now that move is turning negative on this chart to the far right. You can't look at this without considering the action and changes in the market levers activated Monday/Tuesday.

The Q's have regained this morning's title of out-performer on a relative basis with the IWM the under-performer, despite some recent bounce action. I still think the Q's want to rotate in and have their moment before this all ends, but I still think they need AAPL and time is running short...

 QQQ intraday with at least a small 1 min positive divergence at the lows this morning, but still a steering divegrence.

 It may not look like the Q's are in much trouble and still have some time to rotate in, but everything must be viewed in context, the exact same chart with a minor negative from late yesterday to this morning looks more like this on the week...

Leading negative and this is not conducive to upside moves, thus I think AAPL is it's best chance and I'll update AAPL as it is getting more interesting as a swing (plus) trade.

The SPY looks a bit better intraday, but again like the Index futures, the charts that have been calling moves like Monday's, like Tuesday and Wednesday's are falling apart.

 SPY 1 min intraday positive...

However the 3 min calling last week's/ Friday's weakness as well as Monday morning's parabolic drop and flameout/oversold condition is now calling another bout of weakness that the longer term charts can't afford.

The matter of the USd/JPY possible support/lever at $120 has been settled, it was a run for stops and easy money while they still could.

So much for financial media's call of BOJ intervention, it was simple greed and opportunity.

As for the VIX futures as we know where VIX stands (buy signal/Bollinger band pinch), the VIX futures have large accumulation waiting in the wings...

 VIX futures 15 min positive (which is on even longer timeframes) and even this morning on intraday price volatility...

VIX futures have not only been perfectly in line with their move up (something we covered yesterday), but are even accumulating small moves like the one to the far right.

While HYG is seemingly being used to create intraday volatility (market confusion-like I said, they'll never make it easy or obvious unless it benefits them)...

 HYG 1 min intraday

The chart that I have said all week is the only HYG chart that matters to me, the 5 min shows something different...

Again we covered this and the levers yesterday, but as you can see the divegrence from late last week leading to Monday's rout and parabolic drop, the small accumulation to support a bounce as the market doesn't have the strength to do it on its own and the 5 min negative divegrence that would satisfy me that HYG is done and ready to start back on its path to lower lows.

And while TLT sees some intraday shenanigans like the rest of the market, it is now clearly answering the question I had about its intent...

TLT 10 min leading positive, bonds higher, yields lower, stocks follow yields...