Interestingly this morning as ES / SPX futures and other Index futures/market averages fell on the Draghi disappointment that as I stated last night and before,
"No one should be surprised at " as he has maintained an ambiguous tone that the market CHOSE to interpret as imminent QE, Draghi maintained enough plausible deniability to say,
"I just said we need to do something about inflation expectations ASAP, I did not say that included QE"; well as ES and other futures faded on dashed hopes for ECB QE, a curious thing happened...
It seemed as if the BOJ intervened and supported the market through a USD/JPY ramp (one of the levers", however I have my doubts.
Just as S&P futures hit unchanged on the week giving back the last 2-days of oversold bounce, the USD/JPY shoots up past $120, apparently lending the market support via the carry pair as a lever to ramp the market.
Remember USD/JPY moving above $120, I'm not sure if I said this in a post, I haven't had time to go back and look, but stops at $120 are a very obvious psychological level and an easy target for easy money...
A few of our macro themes have been a weaker $USD...
While the macro theme of a weaker USD remains intact, the shorter term timing/action timeframe of 7 minutes, just like we saw in the Index futures that has been so predictive, is showing a negative $USD and expectations for a negative $USD as you can see happened this morning on Draghi news.
The $USD lost ground because of a stronger EUR/USD or a stronger EUR, that means the USD/JPPY would be bound to lose ground as well so close to the stops and easy money at $120.
The 30 min $USD chart negative, so this morning's move lower is not or should not be a surprise as 3C has been forecasting such a move as part of the macro trend for $USD.
On the other hand, another macro trend has been a strengthening JPY/Yen. Why? I have no idea, I'm just following the money, by the time we find out the reason your chance to make money has long passed.
Above is the Yen futures (/6J) shorter term timing 7 min chart, again like Index futures that has been so accurate this week and the Yen initially popped higher, pressuring the USD/JPY lower and away from the easy money stops at $120.
The longer 30 min Yen chart and macro trend is for a higher Yen, again through what mechanism I have no idea, but that's what the chart s showing, both USD and JPY are insisting on a lower USD/JPY,
which from a traders perspective, would be a shame if that move lower happened before the stops at $120 were cleared.
Another macro trend has been a strengthening Euro, this
HAS been at odds with expectations of ECB QE as that would send the Euro lower, again, until this morning there was no way to understand the divegrence, but it seems someone has been betting on the ECB taking no action and $EUR strength which you can also see to the far right this morning, pressuring the $USD down and with it the USD/JPY lever which has fllen short of the stops at $120, at least UNTIL JUST A FEW MINUTES AGO.
This is the Euro 4 hour macro trend forecasting a stronger Euro, this a weaker USD, thus a weaker USD/JPY , thus a weaker market.
As Draghi disappointed this morning, ES in purple (SPX futures) fell and EUR/USD gained (Euro gained, USD dropped), which influences the USD/JPY negatively taking it further away from the stops and easy money at $120, so...
Is this move just minutes ago in USd/JPY higher and ABOVE $120 a ramping lever?
Or is this move in USD/JPY above $120 a last ditch attempt to collect the easy money stops above $120 as was just done before the market and USD/JPY fall further?
I suspect the latter.
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