Monday, October 31, 2011

SLV Update

It seems to have been decided as to whether PM's were influenced by the dollar or were risk off safe haven trades. They've switched between both almost weekly for several months. Today they are effected by the EUR/USD.

Here's a SLV update for those considering buying weakness.
 The 1 min chart has worked well this morning with confirmation until 10:45, a negative divergence that pulled price back and now our second negative divergence, which should pull price back a bit, although it's not a very deep divergence right now.

 The 2 min chart suggests a deeper negative divergence, so lets see how this plays out, it's still not leading negative but it is negative.

 I believe late last week we spotted some early weakness or what at that point looked like a possible consolidation or pullback in SLV, here it is on the 5 min chart, it's a bit deeper then a regular consolidation, but it hasn't seen a LOT of damage today as of now.

 The 15 min chart is showing good confirmation on the way up-higher highs in 3C/price, until the sideways action started, this chart doesn't look as bad as many we have seen recently, but it is the one that is most concerning to me and what it does moving forward.

 Here's the crossover screen which I will be watching for any sign of a negative signal -it produced a buy signal last week. I am guessing at this point that a pullback would probably hit the yellow 10-day moving average, if this turns in to something worse then that, I would not consider buying SLV and I personally would wait to see what it looks like in that area (so long as things stay on this course which is something we can't have a high degree of certainty of with things as fluid as they have been in the last 48 hours.)
I offered this 60 min Trend Channel as what I saw as the only viable stop in SLV at the moment, that has been hit once it crossed below the red trendline. ADX has also turned down from 50+ which is not a great sign.

Bottom line for those who want to buy SLV on weakness, Patience.

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