Monday, October 31, 2011

This is what you get

When you are a single currency bloc that has put ZERO thought in to how to deal with a crisis until you are given a 7 day ultimatum by the world to find a fix. 


I predicted, you probably predicted and just about everyone outside of the Finance Minister's meetings probably predicted that whatever you do for Greece- Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy (except Italy seems to REALLY need it) will demand similar concessions even if they have to lie or sabotage their own economies.


Where things took a real turn toward the SURREAL would be today when the instigator, Greece, turns its nose up at the whole deal. Even if Greece walks away, the cat is out of the bag and the other countries know that they hold more chips then the EU core ever realized.


So last week we heard rumblings out of Ireland not even 24 hours after the plan was announced. 


Next up was Portugal and their Mexican stunt.


Italy doesn't have to do much other then conduct bond auctions and the problems there are evident and REAL.


So there's only one more little piggy left (Greece doesn't count)-Spain.



Bank of Spain's GDP did not grow in the third quarter and there is a risk of not achieving the deficit target this year (sorry, you need Google Translate)

"The Bank of Spain said that the information available for the third quarter suggests that the pattern of decline shown in the previous quarter "would have continued in the middle months of the year, in an environment marked by the deepening crisis of sovereign debt euro area. "
Estimates from the conjunctural information, still partial and incomplete, indicate that "in the third quarter GDP would have been a no-quarter rate of change, bringing its annual rate of 0.7%," the report maintains."

"Current trends indicate the existence of risk of occurrence of a deviation from the deficit target of 6% of GDP in 2011, as a result of weak tax collection and spending of inertia, mainly in the area of the CCAA, "says the Bank of Spain.

The agency explains that "the magnitude of the deviation is within the margins that can be corrected through proper management of budget implementation in the remainder of exercise."

In any case, "if the budget execution data in the coming months indicate the likelihood of these risks materialize, it would be necessary to adopt additional measures in line with the unconditional nature of the commitment by the Government in meeting the fiscal targets and the close scrutiny to which public finances are subject amid the current sovereign debt crisis "

More or less in a nutshell, "Our 3rd quarter growth was ZERO. We are in danger of missing deficit targets for the year, which endangers our credit rating. " it would be necessary to adopt additional measures in line with the unconditional nature of the commitment by the Government in meeting the fiscal targets and the close scrutiny to which public finances are subject amid the current sovereign debt crisis" Translated as: We are the good guys who play by the rules unlike those other guys down south and we can implement further painful austerity measures which are sure to lead to riots in the street and demands by our citizens that we get the same fair treatment as Greece".
Or something like that. Another way to put it would be they state the very obvious, that which needs no explanation to drive home a point. If this were released 2 weeks ago, I think the wording would have been a little different and a lot shorter.
The truly ironic thing we are observing is that the EU made a hasty attempt to keep Greece from spinning out of control, a plan that was short on details, very short on cash, and not well thought out. Now Greece says it might not want to have anything to do with this plan and instead of having 1 beggar who has decided to be a chooser, the EU is faced with 4 more beggars who have the incentive and the means to get what they want. I said it last week, it is the PIIGS that hold all the leverage, not China.
With the way this week has started, I can't wait to see if Dr. Seuss is advising the FAD after flying over from negotiations in Europe.
A Few words of wisdom from the Dr.:
“We are all a little weird and life's a little weird, and when we find someone whose weirdness is compatible with ours, we join up with them and fall in mutual weirdness and call it love.” 

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