Monday, October 31, 2011

Unbelievable Night in the FX Markets

You saw my last post on what was happening with the EUR/USD, literally about 5 mins after that, the Japanese intervened in the currency market as the USD/JPY hit new post World War 2 lows last week. The resulting rally in the USD/JPY went 7 standard deviations higher with about a 400 pip rally and a 450 pip rally in EUR/JPY.

In fairly short order, as the last Japanese FX interventions have gone, over 38% of the move was retraced, however, as would be expected (ES Futures would rally), ES future continued lower instead.

As Japan warned, they would continue intervening until they were satisfied, they apparently went in again after the retracement to $77.684 and sent the USD/JPY up again this time to $79.3505. For the last nearly 2 hours, the Japanese have managed to create a new peg in currency as the USD/JPY hasn't moved more then a pip or two off $79.20. It seem they are buying any offer below $79.20 to maintain this peg. Have fun explaining this action at the G20!

 USD/JPY move up, retracement, and another intervention and holding flat as they soak up any offer below $79.20- a currency peg.

 Here' the EUR/JPY-it didn't help ES futures AT ALL! Unlike the Dollar/Yen peg, the EUR is sliding a bit lower against the Yen.

 And the EUR/USD continues to move lower.

This is ES (darker area is Friday market hours) which is now trading solidly below Friday's lows.

As of now, the Dow Futures are off by 84 point/ -.69%; the S&P are off 9.55 or -.75%, the NASDAQ 100 are off by 17.20 or -.72% and the Russell 2k  -6.50 or -.86%

Something tells me though this is not going to be a quiet night from here on out.




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