Wednesday, December 21, 2011

AAPL, I hope you were paying attention

In AAPL's update yesterday I said AAPL was close and I would consider a phased in Entry. However more importantly, this:

"On a daily chart, this is what the head fake would look like, a move above local resistance on a head fake and a failure, this is without a doubt the best set up for shorting/adding to AAPL."


And that is EXACTLY what happened in AAPL today.


 This is the local resistance and the head fake move and failure that was the best set up for an entry/add to, as a matter of fact, this is yesterday's chart that the above caption was under (below).

The head fake would be a move above local resistance at the green arrow and then back under at the red arrow, that's what happened today. Although AAPL is still only .59% down, it is still in a decent area for a short although I would prefer some intraday strength to short in to. Remember, AAPL was and is a candidate for a phased in entry as mentioned yesterday, figure out your risk management/position size using a stop level above the recent highs, then figure how many shares your risk management will allow at that size, maybe enter 1/3 now, 1/3 on any price strength and the final 1/3 on a confirmed break in the market, XLK and AAPL. For smaller accounts, the transaction costs may be prohibitive, but this s the same way Wall Street enters trades, but that is because of the size of the trades they are putting on. This is not dollar cost averaging, which is in response to a failed position, this is phasing in on a trade when you plan the entry BEFORE you ever enter, there's a big difference.


 The 2 min 3C chart is weak today, you can see distribution right at this a.m.'s head fake move at the yellow arrow.

 The 5 min hart is showing more distribution now then it was last week when I started an AAPL position in the model portfolio on a head fake break out of a triangle (at the green arrow). We have been expecting a bounce in AAPL since last week so I like the idea of adding and may very well add to that position if time allows.

The AAPL daily chart is ugly as well, clear distribution in the top formation and a current leading negative divergence.

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