Wednesday, December 21, 2011

The market picture as of 10:45 pm

 Here's ES, it was negatively divergent all day, in the evening session we have a new low on 3C -leading negative divergence.

Once again the Eur/USD has formed another bear pennant, look for an upside breakout / head fake and a likely test of $1.30. I doubt $1.30 will hold and one $1.30 breaks for real, there will be a lot of selling in the Euro, which will drag equities lower due to the legacy arbitrage correlation between the dollar (and Euro) and equities. Thus far the market is playing out with the bounce and the selling of the Euro on that bounce just as expected last week BEFORE the bounce even began!

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