RIMM Update

I'm not sure what is going on with RIMM, but I'm still holding March Calls in the Options Model Portfolio and I'll show you why.

After we nailed the BBY earnings in a pre-release earnings call

BBY all in the white box, now down 18.5%

because of a negative divergence that suggested an earnings leak was out on the street...

Note the very small accumulation period, just enough to get BBY moving higher and then the flat trade with a 3 negative divergence that just got worse... This was the reason the BBY earnings short call was posted, I was asked to look at RIMM before earnings...

 Last night I mentioned RIMM was up in AH nearly 10% and said lets see what it doe during regular hours, and still up nearly 10%. I entered a long RIMM trade on the earnings call and RIMM beat, but guided lower, seemingly starting to take a play out of AAPL's book as AAPL always guides low and beats.

This was the chart that had me bullish on RIMM

A leading 15 min positive divergence... I assumed it was earnings related, apparently not, but that doesn't mean something else is not in the works.

 Here's short term accumulation in RIMM yesterday in a flat trading range which is typical of accumulation areas and today, RIMM is up and has confirmation.

 More impressively though is the 15 min chart since the RIMM earnings. The white arrow is RIMM as shown above right up to earnings and since RIMM dropped, the chart has moved even higher in a leading positive divergence, the only reason I held, I figured, ok, lets see what's going on here.

We had a great summer in RIMM, we had about 3-4 calls on RIMM and a theory of what it would do over several months, it did everything we expected. The downtrend since the summer has been in confirmation on the 60 min chart, but now we have our first positive divergence on this chart.

I'm not sure what is going on in RIMM, but it appears that the price weakness has been aggressively accumulated. So I'll stick with the trade unless something changes dramatically. As you know, 3C can show us the underlying smart money trade, but we don't know why until it's too late. In my eyes, something bullish is happening in the underlying trade. Interestingly RIMM didn't pop with the market yesterday, but it's up today on accumulation from yesterday, which means RIMM is doing its own thing instead of floating with the market as most stocks do. What is up to, IDK, but I'm going to stick around a bit longer.