Wednesday, December 21, 2011

AMZN Trade Idea Follow Up

AMZN was a short trade idea that recently broke a major top, we almost always see a bounce and shakeout after a major break like that and we were looking to add or initiate short in AMZN on any strength. Yesterday AMZN severely underperformed. If you didn't get in, I wouldn't be too worried, there's a chance for an intraday bounce and beyond that, there's a lot of downside.

 Here''s AMZN's top, the recent dip below the neck line support and a small bounce from there where AMZN could be shorted for a better entry. Today AMZN is down -3.38%, but this is just getting started. The pattern implied target for AMZN is around $100, of course that will take some time and often these downside targets are overshot.

 Here's the bounce off the break of support, note AMZN performed horribly yesterday. Right now it is at the neck line support so an intraday bounce from here wouldn't be surprising and I would consider using any price strength to initiate or add to the short there.

 Look at the negative divergence yesterday on the market's end of day parabolic spike, I warned these usually don't end well. Right now 3C is confirming the downtrend intraday.

 The 2 min chart also suggests an intraday bounce is possible here, although AMZN is very weak and a break through support on volume would be another trigger to consider entering a short position.

 The 5 min chart has shown distribution throughout the entire bounce and is leading negative, so this gives me some security in shorting AMZN on any price strength as the 5 min chart looks bad.

 However the really bad looking hart is the daily, which clearly showed us distribution in to the top and is now n a very nasty leading negative divergence.

Since the recent October top, the Trend Channel on a daily chart has held the entire downtrend including the recent counter trend bounce. The current stop is at the $190 area on a close.

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