Wednesday, December 21, 2011

RIMM Has an Unexplainably Good Day

You might attribute the weakness in the Q's today (-1.41%) to ORCL's disaster last night (-11.66%), XLK (technology sector) was down 1.53%. RIMM's sub-industry group (Diversified Communication Services) was up 2.48%, however there's only 36 components in the sub-industry group and of those 36 component stocks, only 8 closed up more the 1%, RIMM closing up the most at 10.06% (second place was PGI-a small cap that closed up 3.28%). The point being, RIMM was responsible for the gains in the sub-industry group, not the other way around, which also means there's no point in even looking at the Industry group or the market.

An explanation is necessary here; the most gravitational pull on any stock most any day of the year will be the market, the gains may be more or less then the market, but when the market is up, a majority of stocks are up. The second strongest force is the Industry group and then the sub-industry group, it's rotation of industry groups that determine which stocks outperform the market on an up day or which underperform on a down day.

The point being, none of the above pulled RIMM up today, it was RIMM itself.

So was it a dead cat bounce? NO, if RIMM was heading higher on a dead cat bounce it would have happened yesterday with market strength.

So what was it? Yahoo is running an article that AMZN, MSFT and NOK all considered buying out RIMM earlier in the year and that was what caused RIMM to move up today along with capitulation and short covering, but why would the shorts cover today rather then yesterday when the market was strong and they had a real reason to be afraid? And why was RIMM up last night in AH-AH short covering? I doubt it.
Can anyone truly say that this looks like short covering? Short covering looks like a steady diagonal line up with very few pullbacks and any pullbacks are extremely shallow, it looks nothing like this.

The one mystery in RIMM that is yet to be explained in found on 1 chart
A strong 15 min positive leading divergence.

Look at today's volume...

I don't know what is behind RIMM's strength today, I can tell you that the 3C chart above is the reason and only reason I've kept the RIMM long position open. I would usually think, dead cat bounce, but yesterday was the time for that, the volume is not right for that and the 15 min chart remains unexplained. I wouldn't be surprised if we are surprised by some unexpected news.

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