Friday, February 17, 2012

MARKET UPDATE

The SPY/3C is giving nearly an identical signal as it gave last Thursday before Friday's decline, just a bit worse now.



 This is the 5 min 3C chart from last Thursday which started with a relative negative divergence and advanced to a leading negative divergence.

The market fell Friday creating a bearish Harami on heavier volume.


Here;s the same pattern playing out today, except both divergences are deeper and have started much earlier in the day.

The same is true for the other averages...

 Multiple smaller negative divergences have sent the market lower intraday and day to day, but Thursday and today are in the red boxes, the situation is worse now because the leading negative divergence is deeper for all of the averages.

 The IWM

QQQ I just highlighted the declines from the smaller divergences in yellow, but last Thursday-(last week) and today are in the red boxes and again, the leading component is worse now.

I would expect today to be a rather flat day on options expiration unless the large volume of open interest in PUTS was actually bought by Wall Street rather then written, the large volume of open interest puts did strike me as strange given the sentiment indicators being so extremely bullish. This wouldn't be a normal occurrence, but there is a possibility as the high sentiment readings would produce more retail willing to write puts.

Remember both the bond and stock market is closed Monday for President's day.

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